I've seen estimates of the amount of people that the solar system could
support, if fully settled, that differ *vastly*. Ranging from about
3000 times the number of the current population of humans here on
Earth (7 billion), to literally billions of times the current one. Has
anyone else ever noticed this? Maybe we could describe various
scenarios about it.
I would assume that your low number (3000) probably comes from O'Neill's estimate that the asteroid belt, if converted to orbital habitats, could equal 3000 times the surface area of the Earth. So there would be two assumptions there. One, that we would never want to exceed current population densities here on Earth. Two, that we would stop at completely converting all material from the asteroid belt. The belt would only represent the most convenient source of raw matter available in the solar system, and certainly not the only available one.
Mike Combs
From: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com [mailto:spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of William
Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 10:42 AM
To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spacesettlers] Carrying capacity of the solar system
I've seen estimates of the amount of people that the solar system could
support, if fully settled, that differ *vastly*. Ranging from about
3000 times the number of the current population of humans here on
Earth (7 billion), to literally billions of times the current one. Has
anyone else ever noticed this? Maybe we could describe various
scenarios about it.
Actually I got the low number from an interview I listened to on The
Space Show. I don't know where the numbers that the guest himself
used, got them from.
by Marshall Savage back in 1994. He envisioned using zero-G habitats
but only at similar population densities of suburban places here on
Earth now. In his scenario one or more of the icy outer planet moons
such as Callisto would have to scavenged to make up the atmosphere / water / volatiles that would be required for this.
At the highest would be a Dyson Sphere, with several layers, to get
every possible Joule of energy from the sun to support a population.
3.839e26 watts, at 10 kw person, would be 3.839e22 or about 38.3
billion trillion people.
--- In spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com, "Combs, Mike" wrote:
Well considering what has been mentioned about the asteroid belt. Then take the poles of Mercury, the clouds of Venus, the surface of Mars, the small moons of all the gas giants, and some of the large moons of the gas giants, not to mention kuiper belt and Oort cloud objects, its understandable that with full use we could 'hold' a large number of people in the solar system.
Brooks
> Actually I got the low number from an interview I listened to on The
> Space Show. I don't know where the numbers that the guest himself
> used, got them from.
Regards,
Mike Combs
From: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com [mailto:spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of William
Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2012 10:40 AM
To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spacesettlers] Re: Carrying capacity of the solar system
Actually I got the low number from an interview I listened to on The
Space Show. I don't know where the numbers that the guest himself
used, got them from.
One of the high estimates I've seen came from "The Millenial Project"
by Marshall Savage back in 1994. He envisioned using zero-G habitats
but only at similar population densities of suburban places here on
Earth now. In his scenario one or more of the icy outer planet moons
such as Callisto would have to scavenged to make up the atmosphere / water / volatiles that would be required for this.
At the highest would be a Dyson Sphere, with several layers, to get
every possible Joule of energy from the sun to support a population.
3.839e26 watts, at 10 kw person, would be 3.839e22 or about 38.3
billion trillion people.
--- In spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com, "Combs, Mike" wrote:
On 1/24/12 9:39 AM, William wrote:
> every possible Joule of energy from the sun to support a population.
> 3.839e26 watts, at 10 kw person, would be 3.839e22 or about 38.3
> billion trillion people.
That's the trouble -- "carrying capacity" will be a moving target as
technology continues to advance. We could conceivably go even further
beyond the Dyson sphere, if we imagine (thousands of years from now?)
most people are mind uploads [1], and live either in miniaturized
bodies/environments, or entirely simulated ones.
So, I don't think there's much point in trying to come up with a hard
number now. It suffices to say that the solar system as a whole can
support many orders of magnitude more than just the Earth, in comfort
and style.
Best,
- Joe
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading
Most people, and even alot of space settlement enthusiasts, don't
really understand how enormous the resources are in our own Solar
System, for expanding the human population and society. Hard numbers
can hit home.
On 1/26/12 8:58 AM, William wrote:
> really understand how enormous the resources are in our own Solar
> System, for expanding the human population and society. Hard numbers
> can hit home.
I think you're right. One project I've pondered from time to time is
creating a computer strategy game where you settle the solar system,
with as much realism as possible -- starting with cislunar space, and
eventually working your way out to the Oort cloud, with realistic
population sizes. I think it would be an eye-opener, and could maybe do
more to spread realization of the riches of our solar system than any
number of scholarly essays.
Cheers,
- Joe
I'm afraid the greatest problem needing to be overcome is the disbelief of what is possible. Most people only see space colonies and any such ideas as science fiction. Others only believe that space exploration can only happen after we develop higher technologies. And still others have a hard core belief that we must fix all the problems on Earth before 'wasting' money, people & resources first.
--- In spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com, "William" wrote:
Here's something I read someplace. If anybody can confirm or dispute, I'd be interested.
Take 1% of the energy output of the Sun.
Distribute this 1% of matter and 1% of energy evenly amongst 25 billion people.
Now every man, woman, and child in the Solar System has a teraton of matter and a continuous twelve terawatts of energy. Every last member of a human race over three times as populous as today is richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffet... combined.