I found this article from Wired.com. It suggests future market for satellite
cellaur business in near future. It is only a first step into space but you
know the line, "A small step..."

Carl Mullin

When Land Lines Will Be a Memory
By Elisa Batista
2:00 a.m. Oct. 15, 2001 PDT
(http://www.wired.com/news/print/0,1294,47348,00.html)

Americans are snapping up cell phones in record numbers.
But are cell phones becoming their only phones?

That depends on who is asked.

Telephone companies that rely on providing home phone services say no.
Per-minute charges and spotty coverage on mobiles, they say, are enough to
keep people from tossing their home phones.

And while cell phone usage is expected to surpass home phone ownership in
2005, analysts disagree on when, if ever, land lines would become obsolete.

However, a growing segment within the cell-phone-toting population shows
otherwise. Young, frequent business travelers are relying so heavily on their
cell phones that they're abandoning their home phones altogether.

"I'm moving to a new apartment and haven't had my land line phone," said Sean
McCarthy, a 32-year-old executive assistant at American Express in New York.
"I realized I don't really need it because at night I have free service after
9. I don't get home until 7 ... and on the weekends I have free service.

"I recommend (using only a cell phone) because I save money that way."

Laura Wheless, 26, a San Francisco publicist who travels "a lot," agrees. She
has lived almost a year without a home phone because she prefers "to manage
just a minimal number of voicemail systems - my cell phone and work phone,"
she said. "Plus, it's cheaper."

"I don't have (DSL at home) and that is a big disadvantage," she said. "But
I'm not home that often anyway."

Wheless and McCarthy are not alone.

Out of 812 cell phone users surveyed in February 2000, 5 percent told the
Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association that their cell phones
were their only phones. In that phone survey, another 33 percent of cell
phone users said they had thought about replacing their home phones with
their cell phones.

Market research firm Ovum predicted that cell phone usage will surpass home
phone ownership in the United States in 2005, when 238 million people will
have mobile phones and only 152 million people will use home phones. Even
though the cell-phone-toting-only crowd interviewed by Wired News said they
used a land line for work, only 65 million workers will use land lines in
2005, Ovum predicted.

But as carriers and analysts point out, the transition to a wireless world in
the United States will be slower than that of the rest of the world. In many
European, African and Latin American countries, cell phone usage already
surpasses home phone ownership because a cellular infrastructure is cheaper
to maintain than a fixed-line one.

But in the United States -- where analysts estimate fixed-line coverage
already reaches 95 to 99 percent of the population -- many Americans wonder
why they need to get rid of their land lines for a mobile phone, which is a
new technology of inferior quality.

"When I'm calling my mom in Ireland -- you can't make international calls on
a cell phone," said Jupiter Media Metrix analyst Seamus McAteer. "When you
want to sit down and focus on a conversation, the quality is still superior
on a land line."

You can make an international call on a cell phone but it will cost you at
least $2 a minute, said Graeme Kelly, manager at a San Francisco Cingular
Wireless retail store.

"People who replace their home phone don't use the phone much," he said.
Kelly said only "one or two odd people" who have come into his store have
told him they intended to replace their home phones with their cell phones.

The main reason many people are deterred from buying a cell phone -
particularly teenagers - is because purchasing a cell phone requires an
extensive credit check. People who don't have established credit must pay
Cingular a deposit of $200 to $1,000, Kelly said.

If anything, carriers say, land line use remains a necessity.

Verizon Communications (VZ), the No. 1 U.S. local telephone and mobile phone
company, said last week it added 752,000 new wireless customers in the third
quarter. But the company said it also added about 650,000 to 700,000
long-distance land line customers.

And Verizon added 120,000 to 130,000 high-speed DSL Internet access customers
-- who need a home line to subscribe to the service.

Sure, cell phone use is soaring, especially after the Sept. 11 attacks when
many people decided to snag the devices in case of an emergency. But most of
these people don't plan on replacing their home phones, analysts said.

McAteer said Jupiter Media Metrix conducted a survey that found only 8
percent of cell phone users called their mobile phones their "primary
telephones." However, it doesn't mean this small segment of the population
isn't using a land line at all, McAteer said.

Even cell-phone-only users were hesitant to recommend that everyone ditch
their home phones. Wheless said frequent travelers who are "rarely home" and
don't mind skipping out on home DSL can chuck their home phones.

People who claimed their cell phones were their primary phones also boasted
of "reliable" coverage.

"So far it's pretty good," said Crystal Ridley, 21, a Pacific Bell customer
service representative who bought her first cell phone from Sprint PCS two
weeks ago. Ridley replaced only her long-distance plan with her cell phone.
Pacific Bell gives its employees discounts on local phone service.

Jason Cook, 27, an Oakland, California, product manager, said he is more
concerned about keeping the cell phone charged than experiencing dropped
calls.

"Having a phone that keeps its charge for a few solid days of use is a must,"
he said.
Cook, who has had a cell phone for "two, maybe three years," lived six months
without a home phone. He recently moved and had a land line installed for
DSL. But he hasn't given the number out to anyone, and has no phone to field
calls at home.

To communicate with family and friends, he instead subscribes to an AT&T
Wireless service plan that gives him 200 minutes of talk time on weekdays and
1,000 minutes on nights and weekends.

"Don't know how much I actually use, but that's all the plan I need," he
said. "Since I call mostly long distance, the 'nationwide long distance' plan
turned out to be more economical for me."

An Iridium system with handsets almost as cheap as normal mobile handsets with
about the same call costs would be an instant sucess, particulary if it is
reliable (something Iridium wasn't) and the handsets were almost as small as
current mobile handsets (the bricks used on Iridium may have detered some
people).

Motorola lost a lot of money on Iridium and had to get rid of the constellation
because of that although someone who can build a satellite phone system that is
cheaper and doesn't drop out will be able to make a bit of money off it. The
best way to do that would be to use asteriodal resources, maybe even build
something that is better then Teledisic.

--- Ravenart@... wrote:

Ryan Healey wrote:

> An Iridium system with handsets almost as cheap as normal mobile handsets with
> about the same call costs would be an instant sucess, particulary if it is
> reliable (something Iridium wasn't) and the handsets were almost as small as
> current mobile handsets (the bricks used on Iridium may have detered some
> people).

Yeah, but Iridium doesn't work in cities at ground level and
doesn't work indoors... this may be somewhat characteristic of
satellite systems in fact.

I think positioning an Iridium like system to give internet access
might be a better market- that way fixed aerials on the roof can
see the satellites.

> Motorola lost a lot of money on Iridium and had to get rid of the constellation
> because of that although someone who can build a satellite phone system that is
> cheaper and doesn't drop out will be able to make a bit of money off it. The
> best way to do that would be to use asteriodal resources, maybe even build
> something that is better then Teledisic.

The costs to access these asteroidal resources would far outway the
launch costs.

> --- Ravenart@... wrote:
>
>>I found this article from Wired.com. It suggests future market for satellite
>>
>>cellaur business in near future. It is only a first step into space but you
>>know the line, "A small step..."
>>
>>Carl Mullin

--
- Ian Woollard (ian.woollard@...)

"Is a planetary surface the right place for an expanding
technological civilization?"
- Gerard O'Neill

--- Ian Woollard wrote:
> Ryan Healey wrote:
>
> > An Iridium system with handsets almost as cheap as normal mobile handsets
> with
> > about the same call costs would be an instant sucess, particulary if it is
> > reliable (something Iridium wasn't) and the handsets were almost as small
> as
> > current mobile handsets (the bricks used on Iridium may have detered some
> > people).
>
> Yeah, but Iridium doesn't work in cities at ground level and
> doesn't work indoors... this may be somewhat characteristic of
> satellite systems in fact.

It is probably caused by the frequencies used.

> I think positioning an Iridium like system to give internet access
> might be a better market- that way fixed aerials on the roof can
> see the satellites.

That might be a good idea, although there are very few advantages over land
lines except to Rural customers.

> > Motorola lost a lot of money on Iridium and had to get rid of the
> constellation
> > because of that although someone who can build a satellite phone system
> that is
> > cheaper and doesn't drop out will be able to make a bit of money off it.
> The
> > best way to do that would be to use asteriodal resources, maybe even build
> > something that is better then Teledisic.
>
> The costs to access these asteroidal resources would far outway the
> launch costs.

Yes but a system that has all the strengths of Teledisic and Iridium without
the weaknesses would probably be cheaper to build from asteriodal resources and
may be able to make a profit.