Posted to inspire fear for the readers of this list :), LOL, or at
least open some eyes.

http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/quotes.html

Paul, you'll note Amory Lovins is included. This is his quote:

"If you ask me, it'd be a little short of disastrous for us to
discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy because of what
we would do with it. We ought to be looking for energy sources that
are adequate for our needs, but that won't give us the excesses of
concentrated energy with which we could do mischief to the earth or
to each other."

Let's not forget global cooling. Whatever happened to the coming ice-
age?

"The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord
with the increase in global air pollution associated with
industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding
population."

"This cooling has already killed hundereds of thousands of people.
If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world
famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about
before the year 2000."

Isn't this telling:

"A global climate treaty must be implemented even if there is no
scientific evidence to back up the greenhouse effect."
- Richard Benedick, an employee from the State Department working on
assignment for the Conservation Foundation (from his report Who
Needs Evidence?)

And this:

"[W]e have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic
statements, and make little mention of any doubts we may have. Each
of us has to decide what the right balance is between being
effective and being honest."

And here's the claptrap that best summarizes the victorious paradigm:

"Now, in a widening sphere of decisions, the costs of error are so
exorbitant that we need to act on theory alone, which is to say on
prediction alone. It follows that the reputation of scientific
prediction needs to be enhanced. But that can happen, paradoxically,
only if scientists disavow the certainty and precision that they
normally insist on. Above all, we need to learn to act decisively to
forestall predicted perils, even while knowing that they may never
materialize. We must take action, in a manner of speaking, to
preserve our ignorance. There are perils that we can be certain of
avoiding only at the cost of never knowing with certainty that they
were real."

TangoMan

> Posted to inspire fear for the readers of this list :), LOL, or at
> least open some eyes.
>
> http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/quotes.html
>
> Paul, you'll note Amory Lovins is included. This is his quote:
>
> "If you ask me, it'd be a little short of disastrous for us to
> discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy because of what
> we would do with it. We ought to be looking for energy sources that
> are adequate for our needs, but that won't give us the excesses of
> concentrated energy with which we could do mischief to the earth or
> to each other."

Yes, that's exactly what happens in the somewhat satirical book _Midas
World_ by Frederik Pohl. Clean cheap fusion is developed and soon there
is a snowmobile in every garage and the Earth becomes are crazy place --
eventually to the point where people are forced to consume even against
their wishes, and the poorer you are, the more you need to consume and
the less actual work you are allowed to do. (There is a pseudo-economic
rationale for all this in the book...) It takes quite a while to sort
this out, and a lot of people suffer in their hundred room mansions
being forced to stuff their faces with food and alcohol all day instead
of being allowed to take a job. I'd definitely recommend it as a fun
read. I sent a copy of that book to Pons and Fleischman when their stuff
was just breaking news (the beneficial wishes of the developer of fusion
in that book get more or less ignored in a greedy race to use the
invention). :-)

So in that sense I do agree with Amory Lovins -- just like you would not
hand a three year old the keys to a car or nuclear launch system, we may
well need to mature as a society before we can handle ever greater
amounts of power (from SSPS or local PV or whatever) without destroying
ourselves or our life supporting environment before we realize what we
are doing. The fundamental issue is that technology is an amplifier --
and it can amplify even the most distasteful voice -- we need to be
careful if constructing speakers with too much gain for the neighborhood.

--Paul Fernhout

--- In ssi_list@... "Paul D. Fernhout"

> So in that sense I do agree with Amory Lovins -- just like you
> would not hand a three year old the keys to a car or nuclear
> launch system, we may well need to mature as a society before we
> can handle ever greater amounts of power (from SSPS or local PV or
> whatever) without destroying ourselves or our life supporting
> environment before we realize what we are doing. The fundamental
> issue is that technology is an amplifier -- and it can amplify
> even the most distasteful voice -- we need to be careful if
> constructing speakers with too much gain for the neighborhood.
>
> --Paul Fernhout

And therein lies the heart of the fallacy on which the thinking
falls apart. The pompous always set themselves up as knowing what is
best for everyone and despite the public's objection they set out to
shove it down everyone's throats. It'll be good for you, trust me
they say.

You and Amory don't know how much electrical power I can responsibly
handle so it really is quite ignorant of the two of you to try to
tell me what my limits should be.

Besides, who will in the future decide when the human race has
matured sufficiently to handle the increase in available power?

The same qualities of the "true believer" are evident all throughout
religious life. Amory shows himself to be no different. He's seen
the light and knows best.

TangoMan

> You and Amory don't know how much electrical power I can responsibly
> handle so it really is quite ignorant of the two of you to try to
> tell me what my limits should be.

In our society (in many US states), bartenders and party hosts are now
held accountable if guests leave the location drunk and cause an
accident in their car. The point is not to tell you what your limits
are. The point is if we do not know how much electrical power (or
alcohol) you can responsibly handle, it would be irresponsible and
immoral for us to give you an unlimited supply (without other
appropriate safeguards). It would be like putting up a long line of shot
glasses at a bar in front of someone we just met who may or may not have
a drinking problem and say drink as many as you want. If you hurt
somebody afterwards, and we are partially to blame.

See:
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/fcs/pub/social.html
"North Carolina first addressed this issue in 1992 when it became the
eleventh state to recognize liability of a social host who serves liquor
to a guest who later drives drunk and causes injury to a third person. A
social host may be liable for resulting property damage and personal
injury if the following requirements are met.
* The social host served alcohol to a person
* when he knew or should have known the person was intoxicated, and
* when he knew the person would be driving afterwards."

--Paul Fernhout

> Besides, who will in the future decide when the human race has
> matured sufficiently to handle the increase in available power?

In the movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still" IIRC it is supposed to be a
bunch of nine foot tall gold skinned robots from outer space, created
specifically for that sort of purpose. :-)
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00005JKFR?v=glance
(I think the original book may detail this issue better.)

But you ask a good question. I don't have a good answer. The spectacle
of a major world military power invading other countries for
questionable reasons while ignoring other issues that IMHO more
critically need attention at home and abroad (with the rest of the world
letting this happpen) indicates (to me) a still low level of societal
maturity. That is one of the reason I didn't go into working on (killer)
robots for the military in the 1980s (despite having the opportunity and
technical inclination to work on such fascinating technology and knowing
it would be a lucrative career). When I read of the Predator
assasination system I shuddered -- that could have been my handywork.
Eventually more people may find better things to do with their time or
may find the ability to decide not to cooperate (as best they can for
their situation), such as using the phrase "FIW: Freedom I won't" from
the sci-fi book _The Great Explosion_" by Erik Frank Russel.
http://www.blancmange.net/tmh/books/tge/tgetoc.html
Having said that, the protest before the latest Iraq war showing "The
Other SuperPower" in action was heartening.
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi 030414&s=schell
Maybe we are getting there.

If you read Ursula K. Le Guin's book _A Wizard of Earthsea_,
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0553262505?v=glance
the main thing the protagonist learns in his quest to be a powerful
wizard is that true wizardry is mainly about balance and harmony, not
about raw or showy power. It is a hard lesson to learn and many people
(including himself) get hurt in the process. Likely the same will be
true with unlimited electricity. Perhaps that is why it will be best to
make such mistakes in space habitats remote from Earth.

--Paul Fernhout

Sounds a lot like the argument for war with Iraq...

Cheers,

Alfadeltaman

> Sounds a lot like the argument for war with Iraq...
>
> Cheers,
>
> Alfadeltaman

> > "[W]e have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified,
> > dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we
> > may have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is
> > between being effective and being honest."

For someone who keeps bemoaning the discussion of war on this list
you seem to bring it up quite a lot!

Yes, one could indeed argue that there are similarities in tactics.
It should make the anti-war protesters proud or irate that the Bush
Administration learned their tactics from the environmentalists, who
in turn learned their tactics from the communists :) ROTFLMAO!

The Green-Gray Alliance
http://www.techcentralstation.com/091503A.html

How does one make heads or tails of all this?

TangoMan

Dispite what I stated in
are starting to roll. The Big Red Boogieman is not much motivation
to people these days, because we aren't afraid of him anymore.

The luddite nonsense is a big enough problem, without invoking the
Big Red Boogieman.

Xenophile (Green and Chrome!)