SSPS still viable?

John Frazer wrote:

>
> Actually I doubt that the initial investment for a total SSPS
> infrastructure could be much less than this "many hundreds of
> millions".

Data point: a single new 747 costs on the order of a 1-2 hundred million
dollars (anyone know the exact figure?).

One large communication satellite launch costs about $80 million.

One medium LEO launch costs about $30.

SPSS is going to cost a lot more than "many hundreds of millions."

>
> However, the initial LEO station might be (a few hundred million,
> up to) several hundred millions, and a similar amount for a
> Lunar mine. After these 2 things are up, the system should be
> able to bootstrap itself.

This estimate is extremely low. An average new, large airport costs about a
billion dollars. At present, we have no way to get the moon at all, much
less build a mine there. We can't make machinary that will survive the lunar
night. We don't have power plants that will work on the Moon. We can
imagine how all this might work, but we can't do it at the moment. Doing is a
lot harder than imagining. Airports don't even require new technology, just
application of what's already well known and currently in operation.

Al Globus
aglobus@..., (650) 604-4404
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/~globus/home.html

The dinosaurs weren't spacefaring. We are. I don't think that's an accident.
Maybe we are life's taxi to the stars.

I think we should:

1. Devote half of NASA's budget ($7 billion) to reaching NASA's 2020 goal of
reducing launch costs to Low-Earth-Orbit to $220/kg with a 0.01% failure
rate.
This should enable space tourism. The resulting orbital hotels will need to
develop efficient orbital life support and other necessary technologies.

2. Build orbital space colonies. The materials in the largest asteroid are
sufficient for orbital colonies with a combined surface area about 500 times
greater than Earth's. Eros alone could make over ten thousand space colonies,

each with about about 10 square kilometers of 1g living area.

3. After a few generations of orbital living, people won't need their colony
to be near Sol. Then small groups of colonies with populations in the
tens-of-thousands can set out on multi-decade journeys to nearby stars.

Except the launch goals, none of this is even a little bit official.