TGD(ver 1.0) Waste of Time

Ian Woollard wrote:

> Al Globus wrote:
>
> > Ed Minchau wrote:
>
> My theory is that the price will halve every 5 years for the
> foreseeable future; on average; but it may drop more quickly in
> the short run due to competition between the Russian block and
> the Americans.

Considering that the price of launch has actually risen over the last 30 years,
that's a theory in need of some data. Measured in person-hours per ton to
low-Earth-orbit, a Saturn V launch was cheaper than any current alternative, with
the possible exception of some Russian launchers Source: Reducing Space Mission
Cost, James Wertz and Wiley Larson, page 116. In addition, launch costs have never
halved over any 5 year period. Why would they suddenly start now?

As to competition between the old USSR and the U.S., most of the new and recent
launchers developed or in development in the US use major pieces of ex-Soviet
hardware (engines, whole vehicles, etc.).

>
> Tourism is ~15 years away, if I am right.
>

I wish you were right, but I don't see a shred of evidence for a tourism business
outside of people with literally millions to spend on a trip to space.. The only
hope I see for middle-class tourism is NASA's official goal of a few hundred
dollars/lb to LEO by 2020 or so with one failure in 10,000 flights. If this goal
were reached, tourism should work. However, I don't see a development path that
will get us there. Hopefully am wrong.

> Can NASA supply a market? Can a government make profit? It seems
> unlikely, but it has happened occasionally.

NASA by itself is not really a market. A market with one customer, isn't a
market. Also, governments aren't supposed to make profits. If they did, they
could use the power of taxation and their control of the legal system to destroy
all possible competition. This happens in many countries, almost all of which are
pretty poor as a result. We need to insure that our government never makes a
profit, and removes itself from any line of development that begins to be
profitable. That's for business and private enterprise.

Al Globus
aglobus@..., (650) 604-4404
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/~globus/home.html

The dinosaurs weren't spacefaring. We are. I don't think that's an accident.
Maybe we are life's taxi to the stars.

I think we should:

1. Devote half of NASA's budget ($7 billion) to reaching NASA's 2020 goal of
reducing launch costs to Low-Earth-Orbit to $220/kg with a 0.01% failure rate.
This should enable space tourism. The resulting orbital hotels will need to
develop efficient orbital life support and other necessary technologies.

2. Build orbital space colonies. The materials in the largest asteroid are
sufficient for orbital colonies with a combined surface area about 500 times
greater than Earth's. Eros alone could make over ten thousand space colonies,
each with about about 10 square kilometers of 1g living area.

3. After a few generations of orbital living, people won't need their colony
to be near Sol. Then small groups of colonies with populations in the
tens-of-thousands can set out on multi-decade journeys to nearby stars.

Except the launch goals, none of this is even a little bit official.