moon and NEAs

From: John Frazer [mailto:johnf4303@...]

>-go to the Moon
>
>Yes, in that it is a nearby source of raw materials
>outside of the steepest part of the Earth's gravity well.

Nearby, yes, but NEAs are more accessible (distance doesn't matter
nearly as much as relative velocity), as well as richer sources.

I certainly never meant to imply that the moon necessarily wins hand down
against NEAs. As I recall, asteroids weren't represented on that first
list. It's certainly true that NEAs, as you correctly state, have certain
advantages. But the moon has advantages of its own. I expect we'll do
both.

I think it will turn powerfully on how easy or hard it is to support humans
in space for long durations without resupply in the early days. I can see a
scenario where the technology of telepresence advances only very slowly,
such that you have to send as many people to the moon to mine it as to a
NEA. That, combined with a NEA happening to come along on a particularly
favorable trajectory, might result in us using asteroidal resources first.
I'd expect that afterward we would use lunar resources too, but maybe we
could get by without. Coming back and forth from the moon certainly becomes
orders of magnitude more economical with use of NEA resources in HEO.

But if telepresence advances rapidly, we might have a situation where the
moon could be mined telerobotically from Earth. Such a development might
push us toward use of lunar resources first. But lunar resource use would
most certainly get followed by asteroidal resource use.

Regards,

Mike Combs

From:
John Frazer [mailto:johnf4303@...]
>-go to the Moon
>
>Yes, in that it is a nearby source of raw materials
>outside of the steepest part of the Earth's gravity well.
Nearby, yes, but NEAs are more accessible (distance doesn't matter
nearly as much as relative velocity), as well as richer sources.

I certainly never meant to imply that the moon necessarily wins hand down against NEAs. As I recall, asteroids weren't represented on that first list. It's certainly true that NEAs, as you correctly state, have certain advantages. But the moon has advantages of its own. I expect we'll do both.

I think it will turn powerfully on how easy or hard it is to support humans in space for long durations without resupply in the early days. I can see a scenario where the technology of telepresence advances only very slowly, such that you have to send as many people to the moon to mine it as to a NEA. That, combined with a NEA happening to come along on a particularly favorable trajectory, might result in us using asteroidal resources first. I'd expect that afterward we would use lunar resources too, but maybe we could get by without. Coming back and forth from the moon certainly becomes orders of magnitude more economical with use of NEA resources in HEO.

But if telepresence advances rapidly, we might have a situation where the moon could be mined telerobotically from Earth. Such a development might push us toward use of lunar resources first. But lunar resource use would most certainly get followed by asteroidal resource use.

Regards,
Mike Combs