100-Year Starship some way off

Brooks,
One is the slowing growth rate of the human race, we are expected to cap out at 9 billion and then actually start to drop after that. (Not that a 1 to 10% would probably be more then happy to live Earth with their families for a space colony.) But still after that we will have a declining population so 'expansion' will be less of a pressure. Though environmental degradation will continue for the next couple hundred years, removing even 10% isn't likely to really relieve that much pressure on the system.

Our birth rate is declining primarily in developed nations, NOT in developing and 3rd world countries. It seems to be a matter of the educated making that CHOICE for a number of reasons, both economic and environmental. We all know that no large percentage of Earthlings will, or will desire to, migrate from Earth to a habitat in space. Most initial pioneers will be industrialists, workers, scientists, engineers, military and their families, and then in the second wave will come those of us that have waited impatiently for such an opportunity, farmers, craftsmen, artists and the disaffected for one reason or another, ready to make new lives for themselves...in short, the same type of pioneers that settled the American West. These people will know of the constraints on reproduction in the original habitat, but as soon as more are fabricated and there starts to be plenty of room for homesteading, their birthrates will step up. As any pioneer, or farmer up until a generation ago knows, a families chief resource is its children, and plenty will be produced. Always, when a new frontier is opened, the rough and ready are willing to brave its dangers and shortcomings for a chance at a new life for themselves and their families.

From: brooksn
Sent: Sunday, February 20, 2011 8:27 AM
To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [spacesettlers] Re: : 100-Year Starship some way off

Interesting, a few issues with the South Pacific diaspora of humans though. One is the slowing growth rate of the human race, we are expected to cap out at 9 billion and then actually start to drop after that. (Not that a 1 to 10% would probably be more then happy to live Earth with their families for a space colony.) But still after that we will have a declining population so 'expansion' will be less of a pressure. Though environmental degradation will continue for the next couple hundred years, removing even 10% isn't likely to really relieve that much pressure on the system.

Another issue is we tend to stay close to each other for economic and cultural reasons, exchanging goods, visiting, etc. So I would think the first habitats would be in Earth orbit, and then when they can handle the conditions of space above LEO, orbiting the moon, Mars, and maybe an adventurous habitat would 'tour' the inner and outer planets doing extensive study of each. But that most of the dozens of habitats at that time would still be very close to home. Eventually though some habitat will decide to take the plunge and head to alpha. And then maybe another will head to Bernard's star, the next closest to us and a red dwarf star.

But the biggest problem is of course the first habitat! We really need the first since the rest will be much easier after that. With a workforce in orbit, manufacturing and resource extraction in place, not relying on every Earth launch we can really expand!
Brooks

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