money is in short supply

On Mar 3, 2011, at 5:57 AM, Matt Gallimore wrote:

>
> From: Al Globus alglobus@...
>
> > Forgive me for sounding too conventional, but how about this
> >for asteroid mining:
> > 1. Launch a rocket derived from shuttle external tank.
> >
> "Why do you think this is the best way to go?"
>
> Best? Just conventional, meaning using mostly proven technology.
> The design
> challenges for the launch would be within near term capability. It
> could launch
> a significant at once. If the first stage were sent to the
> destination, the
> fuel tanks could be used to for storage.
>
If you use the tank without the orbiter, presumably you will put
engines on the tank. Shuttle main engines? A new engine? In any
case, the loads change, a lot. The tank will require redesign to
handle the loads. Of course, you will need new avionics and a payload
shroud. As the tank production line has shut down, it will need to
be restarted.

Now let's consider the SpaceX claim they can build a 150 ton->orbit
vehicle in 5 years for $2.5 billion, fixed cost. They say this is
approximately 10x the Falcon 9, which is almost 10x of the Falcon 1.
That suggests the heavy lift vehicle would be 80-90 Falcon 1s
combined. The, the engine, tankage, module avionics, and coupling
hardware exist, are flying and the assembly lines are in operation.
Clustering provides manufacturing economies of scale. They think they
can scale 10x because they already did a 10x scale up from Falcon 1 to
Falcon 9.

I'd like to see an open competition, fixed price, for a heavy lift
vehicle.

>
> Could have mentioned the Energia as an example, but just went with
> more recent
> heavy lift concept.
>
> Someone pointed out the existing tool - Ariane 5 - would have much
> lower load
> than my reference to an unbuilt one.
>
> It seems that when talking about space settlement, we discuss
> projects that
> require multiple technological developments which add layers of
> complexity to
> projects. Sending a payload to an asteroid using a standard
> technology would
> allow the mission to give greater focus on asteroid specific
> technologies. We
> all know there is a lot of work to do developing them.
>

Quotes from Mike Griffin, former NASA Administrator:

"I know that humans will colonize the solar system and one day go
beyond," Washington Post.

"In the long run, a single-planet species will not survive," and "One
day, I don't know when, but one day, there will be more humans living
off the Earth than on it," Rolling Stone Magazine, 23 February 2006.

"For me the single overarching goal of human space flight is the
human settlement of the solar system, and eventually beyond. I can
think of no lesser purpose sufficient to justify the difficulty of the
enterprise, and no greater purpose is possible," 2003 testimony
before Congress.

Al Globus
http://alglobus.net

Views expressed in this email are only my opinions and are not the
position of any organization I'm familiar with.