Becoming a multi-planet species

Al Globus alglobus@... [spacesettlers] wrote:

> The outer space treaty has helped keep a lid on space war for many
> decades. Do not discount how important this is. One good space war and
> LEO will be unusable due to debris and the space age will be over.

There are a lot of unprovable assumptions behind the claim that OST has
had any effect in preventing space war.

It seems just as likely to me that space war hasn't happened because it
was never practical, despite some investment in it by at least the Soviets:

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/revealed-the-soviet-unions-space-cannon-14068
http://mysteriousuniverse.org/2014/10/orbital-warfare-the-soyuz-space-fighter/

I do agree, however, that any real battles in LEO would result in a
debris cloud from which it would be hard to recover.

> The OTS allows for extraction of materials and ownership of those
> materials. It also has provisions for non-interferance, which is
> probably enough legal protection to mine the moon and asteroids. Once
> nations start claiming space real estate (in the absence of OTS) there
> is a good chance war will follow, and you cant have private property
> without govt protection (people will just take it from you).

I see things unfolding differently: with the OST in place, there is no
legal framework for property claims -- which means that once people
start moving out there and actually living on various bits of rock
throughout the solar system, they will have no *legal* recourse to
protect what is "obviously" their property (de facto, but not de jure).
They will have no choice but to resort to violence (or threats of
violence).

If my grandfather first settled on a particular small asteroid, my
father and mother continued his work, extending the base and making it
into a home, and now I'm living on it with my friends and family, and
Big Mining Corp comes along demanding access to my facilities so they
can mine all the valuable stuff right out from under my feet, as
permitted by the OST... I am almost certainly going to say "Like hell!"
and ready the weapons.

Much, much better if, firstly, Big Mining Corp had no legal basis for
such a ridiculous request; and second, if I could simply sue them or
press criminal charges if they try to enter my home without permission
or rob my family of the resources we have been living on for generations.

> In any case, if you put the first settlements in equatorial LEO you
> dont need extraterrestrial materials to get started.

Yes, true, this is not a near-term problem. It's a long-term problem.

But the very idea that, 500 or 1000 years from now, there are going to
be people living throughout the solar system but not owning anything
they live on (except what was built from scratch) -- it's ludicrous.
People *will* claim the land they spend their time, money, and lives to
develop, and they should have a legal means for doing that peacefully.
Otherwise, violence is inevitable.

And if we can see that the OST is going to have to go and a legal basis
of property ownership will be needed *eventually*, then we should
perhaps work that out now. Doing so could provide a powerful incentive
for real development of the solar system. Obviously this development
will happen eventually regardless, but it could happen sooner and more
smoothly with a sensible legal framework in place.