HORIZON at BBC (UK)

andy-nimmo wrote:
>
> Hi Al and all,
>
> What you say sounds good Al, but it ignoires the real situation. We've
> known here in UK, let alone the US, how to launch 50 folk into LEO at
> $10,000 a head for over 15 years now. Read the IAF papers for 1986 and
> 1987 if you don't believe me.

with all due respect, papers aren't launchers and don't prove much of
anything with regard to cost. Cost estimates of almost everything are
low. Ever contract to have a house built or a major remodel? Try it.
Most come in over the estimate, and millions of houses and remodels have
been done. Optimistic cost projection is particularly true of things
that haven't been built before. For example, when Orbital Sciences
built their small launcher (Taurus) they estimated a 50% reduction in
launch cost over an ancient NASA system then in use. They achieved
about at 10% reduction. Good work, but not what they "promised." Gary
Hudson is another good example. I first heard him promise radically
reduced launch cost about 1980. To date, he has never got anything into
orbit. So much for projections and promises.

That said, I'll try to find the papers. Can you give me a proper
reference to ease the search?

--
Al Globus
aglobus@..., (650) 604-4404
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/~globus/home.html

The dinosaurs weren't spacefaring. We are. I don't think that's an
accident. Maybe we are life's taxi to the stars.