HORIZON at BBC (UK)

andy-nimmo wrote:
>
> Mass production and improved use will bring down the cost of space -
> to my mind to around $10,000 per head for a two week holiday in a LEO
> hotel (including transport at both ends) within around 10 years of
> now.

I hope to get to those dollar figures, but I don't believe the time
scale for a minute. Let's have a gentlemans bet ($1). I lose if a
ticket to space is less than $50,000 in 2001 dollars by 2011. I
sincerely hope you'll win and live to collect.

> It won't be NASA of course, it will be private enterprise that
> does it, but various national enterprises will first lead the way,
> particularly during the more expensive phase, now begun by Tito. We
> used to have a saying in KLM, 'aircraft only make profits when they
> are in the air'. The same will prove true of spacecraft.
>

Actually, government was VERY heavily involved in getting the cost of
aircraft down to reasonable levels. Mail contracts played a role, but
probably more important was the development and mass production of
military aircraft, particularly during WWII. I suspect most early
commercial aircraft were derivatives of WWII era military aircraft.
Also, the swept wing, jet engines, and the ATC system -- all essential
to the commercial aircraft business -- were developed by governments.

> Within a few years now, Europe, Japan and China will be launching their own astronauts.

Europe and Japan have no developments which will launch people in the
next few years -- except in US or Russian spacecraft. There is evidence
the Chinese are developing something. Let's hope it's good.

--
Al Globus
aglobus@..., (650) 604-4404
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/~globus/home.html

The dinosaurs weren't spacefaring. We are. I don't think that's an
accident. Maybe we are life's taxi to the stars.