Long-term planning (an unfortunate lack, thereof)

Fair.

Still, I'd be quite willing to give up for the next twenty years all
exploration of any objects other than Luna and NEOs. For the meantime,
just forget about Mars, Europa, and Pluto. There will be plenty of
opportunities to do research on other solar system objects once a 1000
people are living in space and we can fill up our probe at the local liquid
oxygen gas station.

The critical path research items that I think desparately need to be
addressed in the near-term have nothing to do with Mars; nor with the
long-term effects of weightlessness on the human body; nor with closed
ecosystem research; nor with producing ball-bearings in free-fall; nor
with the study of how rats, spiders, monkeys, or other animals and plants
react to free-fall; nor with how deep the lunar mantle is; nor with the
possibility of present or past life off the Earth.

Rather, the research items that should be top priority are:
* Finding, with high probability, all NEOs 100 meters or larger, and
confirming in detail their orbits;
* Assessing lunar polar ice, and possibilities for its extraction;
* Assessment of other possible concentrated ore bodies and resources on
Luna, such as volcanic vents, lava tubes with cold traps, etc.;
* Detailed geologic, chemical, etc. characterization of a couple dozen NEOs

Not every research item associated with Luna and NEOs will be useful. For
example, we really don't need to know exactly how large the core of Luna
is, we only need to know about the top 5 meters of regolith. If we find
out how large the core of the Moon is while attempting to assess the top
five meters of regolith, that's grand, but it shouldn't be the focus of our
investigation.

We need to put on some serious blinders, and keep our eyes on the target
and only on the target.

Ron Menich

hollroa@...
Please respond to thereof)
ssi_list

>>>>I disagree strongly. The "long-term focus" --- or perhaps lack of any
reasonable focus --- is why NASA spends its dollars on the Space Station,
on Mars, and on other activities that bear little relation to making
near-term space industrialization using extraterrestrial resources happen.
Such space industrialization using extraterrestrial resources holds the
promise of starting an entirely new sector of the economy that will
eventually have an economic impact greater than that of the Internet. The
sooner this happens, the sooner the compounding effects of time and money
will benefit us all. The longer we wait --- for example, by spending our
money on more Mars probes instead of searching for ice at the Lunar poles
--- the longer those economic returns get pushed out into the future, and
the lower their net present value becomes.>>>>

Of course you are correct. NASA's disillusioned obsession with Mars will
actually postpone the date that we are actually able to achieve Mars
colonisation,
rather than speed it up. The O'Neill vision must come first. This is not
to say
that we should give no attention at all, to efforts that further our
understanding
of Mars. Nor would I be prepared to abandon projects that work towards
Mars colonisation.
Merely, I would assert, that the majority of our concentration should be
focused upon
the exploitation of the lunar and asteroidal resources. The use of these
resources
would allow us to build spacecraft that could ferry enormous numbers of
colonists
from LEO to the Martian surface. The idea of using Mars colonisation as
one of the
drivers behind space colonisation, is a good one. But it needs to be
realised, that
large scale colonisation of Mars, will require an enormous amount of space
infrastructure.
This can only be created by employing the plan that O'Neill laid out for
us.
It is the short-term rush to Mars, rather than the establishment of long
term
infrastructure, that is likely to waste a great deal of time and money.
Once again,
a lack of long term thinking.

Tony