Large scale lunar&NEO programs and Hypothetica

> I was thinking that 'hypothetica' could probably be used as a
> model for
> any G8 country supporting an independent space program. My original
> assumption was that hypothetica might be the US. It seems clear
> that either
> Germany, UK or France could easily afford a program that would put
> large
> amounts of human infrastructure in HEO. One of the requirements for
> the
> program would probably be the development of a Big Dumb Booster.
> Incidentally, I believe that the 'British Billion' is now a more or
> less
> defunct number, which is no longer used. When you hear the term
> 'billion',
> it almost invariably means 10**9 not 10**12. It is also customary
> to work
> out costs in the US dollar, since it is a unit that I and most
> other people
> understand. Working things out in Sterling, Francs or Deutch marks
> would
> get confusing.

Fair enough. Proposal (1) is (3e9 USD/yr) and Proposal (2) is (20e9
USD/yr). This seems reasonable for any G8 country supporting an
independent space program. (Wouldn't it be nice if the US would
redirect a mere 10% of its defense budget to this effort!? It would
almost make paying taxes fun.)

Here are some more Pros and Cons then:
Proposal (1)
PROS:
Mankind eases into the idea of being a space faring species.
Benefits from the 'natural' growth rate of technology within
it's own existing economy.
Benefits from a flatter learning curve producing fewer
accidents and perhaps more effecient designs.
CONS:
I may not get to go. (I guess this translates to Lost
Interest because the goal is too far away.)
High risk of continual changes in direction. Thus,
extending the project even more.

Proposal (2)
PROS:
National unification around a big project.

CONS:
High capital investement may make it difficult
for privatization once complete.
Culture shock: "We're in space, now what?"