Hypothetica in the US

Forum: SSI-List
Thread: Hypothetica in the US

# 15051 byhollroa@... on June 18, 2001, 8:05 a.m.
Member since 2022-08-22

>>>>>>>In the mind of the public, Mars is sexy, the Moon is passe' (and
everything that could ever be known about the Moon was completely
investigated and settled by the Apollo missions), and NEOs are... well...
what did you say a NEO is? Is that some new type of music? :)>>>>>>>>

The public are likely to be most impressed by a space program that
incorporates the following aspects:

1) After an initial large investment, the program will pay for its own
expansion and will produce a return, through the sale of useful space
products, like SPS's. Large space budgets will not be required in order to
maintain the program in the long run.

2) The program will permit ordinary human beings (Mr Joe Bloggs) to
emigrate and work in space.

The first point represents the most important difference between O'Neill
and Zubrin programs. The O'Neill program was specifically designed to
produce a return on investment. The Zubrin plan makes no such promises. The
possibility of financial return, is what makes the O'Neill plan at all
possible. Even though Bob Zubrins Mars direct plan could probably be
implemented for 1/4-1/3rd the price of O'neills, Zubrins mars direct plan
is probably insupportable in the medium and long term. This is the idea
that needs to be put across to the politicians. O'Neills plan could
conceivably give a 100% return on investment within 15-20 years. It is
backed up with by excellent business economics.
The second point is what will sell the idea to the public.

What the O'Neill idea lacks is a vocal figure head. In terms of both
government and private investment, it should be much easier to attract
attention with the O'Neill plan rather than the Zubrin plan. You refer to
Mars as being 'sexy', but at the end of the day, the thing that is most
'sexy' to US businessmen is money. There is simply no money to be earned
from Zubrins plan. In 15 years time the bottom will have fallen out of it.

Tony

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