Markets

>>But the GEO comms market isn't the only part of the possible
>>
>>launch market is it? It's not even the biggest part of the potential
>>
>>launch market.

> GEO comsats are the biggest part of the present commercial market.
>
> Is the military/intelligence market larger than commercial commsats today ? Not sure, probably yes.

I don't think that's right. Most launches are commercial I believe.

> As for the POTENTIAL market, well that is a different matter. Potential markets are NEW markets.

That's clarified it greatly, thanks.

>>There's LEO comms sats, weather sats, spy sats,
>>
> OK, those are PRESENT markets, but how much expansion potential do they really have ? Enough to get us
> to the high frontier ? I doubt it.

LEO comm sats show the biggest potential growth; but only you
raised the possibility of the high frontier- and I don't know why
you did so. Even a big LEO launch program could cut the commercial
launch costs right now though. (We're down to about $2600/kg last
time I checked.)

>>tourism; people who
>>want to live in space, people who want to travel to Mars, people
>>who want to live in the asteroid belt, microwave power satellites
>>etc. etc.
>
> All those things are POTENTIAL future markets, and so none of them are

> real;

They are real markets, just they aren't being serviced at the moment.

> and the prospects right now do not look good for any of them,

> for the reasons previously discussed. Mostly governmental and

> political obstacles.

Presumably you live in America. It is noteable that America has
never launched the most rockets. It is also amusing that America
has NASA, which is the nearest thing you can imagine to a communist
organisation in a very capitalist country like America. NASA
doesn't read Karl Marx, but they do try to conquer space and by
that means try to ensure that no profit is made there except to the
companies spending tax dollars obtained in contracts with NASA.
It's wrong.

> Mars is just plain too expensive, all the billionaires in the world do

> not have enough disposal income to make it happen, even if they wanted to.

> And all the Mars fans who go to scifi conventions do not have enoguh money, not even close.

Mars is rather expensive right now. If the LEO launch costs come
down, then Mars is going to be within easy reach; personally I
don't care for it, but plenty of people want to go. There's nothing
inherently expensive about going to Mars.