Digest Number 509

Charles:

Thank you for clarifying by stating

"I am referring to the size of the
world's energy market, not the ROI of a single SPS at
L-1. The demo at L-1 by itself will not make a
profit. But the huge industry it will spawn is the
ROI."

As for bootstrapping, I think it is certainly possible that bootstrapping
could lead to the same sort of SPSs and industry downstream as your L1
demo might. By 'bootstrapping' in this context, I mean something, for
instance, like the following:
1.) Send teleoperated/robotic equipment to Malapert Mountain to begin to
make solar cells using local materials.
2.) After a few years of (1), send a liquid oxygen plant to Malapert
Mountain and start making liquid oxygen using teleoperation.
3.) After (1) has reached a specified level of megawatts and after (2)
there is enough liquid oxygen for refueling, then establish a small human
base at Malapert Mountain. The base will have all the electricity and
liquid oxygen it needs as a result of steps (1) and (2).
4.) After some years of (3), develop components of mass driver at or near
Malapert Mountain and transport them to the equator using some means
(small-hop rocket, or maybe even surface transport).
5.) Build equatorial mass driver, and move on to O'Neill nirvana, complete
with SPSs and happiness for all.

For (1), I was definitely thinking small is better. Perhaps (1) is
something that could come in under the NASA budgetary radar screen and be
treated more or less like an expensive deep space probe. For (1), I'd
envision using current launchers and miniaturizing as much as possible.

My thoughts were, "How can we actually get started with minimal up-front
expenditure?" Step (1) is the bootstrapping step that I'd hope to do
with as small an upfront expenditure as possible.

But if you can secure the larger hunk of upfront cash required for your L1
SPS demo, then more power to you.

My thesis is that the larger up-front expenditures might result in the
idea being shot down in Congress or by the Administration.

And no, I don't expect that private industry would fund either your L1
demo or my alternative bootstrapping scenario. Alas.

As for the relative 'ROI' of these alternatives, I have no clue.

Ron

charles radley cfrjlr@...
12/20/02 11:12 PM

I will debate your numbers later, the particular
values do not matter for my argument..

Ron and yourself have dodged my central issue, so I
will repeat it.

We can calculate an ROI for SPS. It is large. I
threw out 100:1 for no particular reason. It could
be a lot larger, I am referring to the size of the
world's energy market, not the ROI of a single SPS at
L-1. The demo at L-1 by itself will not make a
profit. But the huge industry it will spawn is the
ROI.

What is the ROI for the boostrapping model ? I submit
that it is zero, anybody care to defend a different
number ?