Bootstrapping - Step Eleven Forum: SSI-List
Thread: Bootstrapping - Step Eleven
# 17307 byColin Keizer on Jan. 11, 2003, 2:27 p.m.
Member since 2022-08-22
Hello Tangoman.
Human presence HUGELY expands the cost of the mission and greatly
increases the risks to every step of the project AFTER the point where
human presence requirements are introduced. If the human becomes too
expensive and you have to redesign the project it messes up all the
scheduling and investment cycles and targets and, and, and....Ick!
Bluntly, can you write a scenario that returns something of physical
value to LEO without introducing a single human to space?
If you can do that there is a much better chance you can make money.
If you cannot do that, I suggest reducing scope until you can eliminate
the human(s).
Ideally, I would like to see the "something of physical value" returned
to some place on the surface of the Earth with no need for ANY human
presence in space. A nice big chunk of platinum would be nice. Maybe a
block of frozen ammonia and methane with some interesting amino acids
tucked inside would work? It must be high value and repeatable or there
won't be any profit.
Please note, this revolt against human presence is for "proof of
concept" projects only. I want to build a village on Mars as much as
anybody. I just don't believe it will happen until somebody creates
MANY ways to make LOTS of profit from space resources. I don't believe
you can see profits until you remove the human presence from the
equation. Either that, or we all sit on our thumbs waiting for
technologies that vastly reduce the costs of reducing risk to humans in
space.
Look at telecommunications. INTELSAT made money. Even with real
profits in hand, and all sorts of "crowding" issues in the most
desirable commsat orbits, does INTELSAT invest in human-tended
telecommunications platforms? No, they don't. The costs do not justify
the benefits.
Colin Keizer