Demographic Model uploaded to Files section

Forum: SSI-List
Thread: Demographic Model uploaded to Files section

# 17544 byvictoriatangoman on March 24, 2003, 1:43 a.m.
Member since 2022-08-22

I've been tinkering with an Excel based model on demographics and
thought it might interest listmembers who wonder how a society in
orbit might grow over time.

Rather than assuming a colony of an Earth country peopled with
citizens of that nation, I'm assuming no dominant country and the
immigration comes from many countries. Thus a new culture is formed.
I've modeled a society that has a tax code to encourage fertility in
order to speed up population growth, cultural cohesion and societal
formation and to speed up the time when births account for more
growth than immigration. The result is a fertility of 2.87 rather
than a replacement value of 2.1 children per woman.

The model incorporates fertility, mortality and immigration rates.

Immigration is modeled as a the number of passenger shuttles leaving
Earth per day to dock at a LEO transhipment station. Each shuttle
has a 50 passenger capacity.

You can imagine how quickly you can fill up an Island 1 (10,000
people) an Island 2 (250,000) or an Island 3 pair (10,000,000
people) or how many of each Habitat you'll need at given points over
the century that I model.

I wanted to see if I could model a situation to have 100,000,000
people in space in less than a century. I believe that the model is
flexible enough so that you can modify it to examine a number of
different scenarios.

If you're interested, download it and enjoy. Let me know how it
works.

TangoMan