New Book on Space Colonies

>
> I've posted topic on economics on this list but nobody ever
> responds :(

We need to change this. Only when the people who really care about
these things have a solid grasp of *all* the issues involved will we be
able to make serious progress towards the goals of SSI.

> I think the above are all interesting topics but Habitat
> conceptualization is my hobby, not a quest for reality. I don't EVER
> expect private enterprise to get orbital society established simply
> because of the multitude of economic and technical interlinkages
> required make it unprofitable for any first mover to act.

I differ with you on this point: I believe that the obstacles to
private enterprise creating a spacefaring civilization can be overcome.
I think a close analysis of the details of the path ahead will reveal
that the obstacles are not similar to mountains which must be climbed
but rather resemble a series of locks which must be picked. I envision
a struggle less like boxing and more like Aikido. There are currents of
history all around us, and if we understand them we can move with them
rather than against them, deflecting only a small amount in order to
direct the force in the direction most congenial to our desired
outcome. This may mean changing the desired outcome into something more
accessible. It most certainly does require study of the way private
enterprise functions, the dynamics of the political process, and a
clear-eyed appreciation of where we stand in history.

The biggest mistake I see in thinking about how to get from here to
there is in trying to overconstrain both the endpoint and the path.
Orbital colonies will come when they make economic sense. They will
make economic sense because they serve some market or other. Create the
market, and the colonies will come. In the process of creating the
market, we have to pass through every single point on a path from where
we are right now to where we want to be. Only if we think carefully
about the next step, the step we will take tomorrow (as in Sunday
August 31st 2003, not some vaguely imagined future) will we have any
influence on making things happen the way we want them to. The big
picture stuff has already been done by Von Braun, O'Neill, and others.
The nitty-gritty is up to us.

I believe that the critical issue which opens the next lock is cheap
access to LEO. This means we should support any and all attempts to
bring down those costs. The best bet at this stage is supporting the
suborbital startups and the dot com millionaires like Elon Musk. The
other thing needed is to propagate the memes that will encourage people
to take space seriously as a place where they personally can business
and as a place they might someday get to visit in person.

> Orbital development will require a concerted push from Earth
> societies. Now this need not be a government spending program,
> rather it could be tax incentives, changes in laws, and other acts
> to minimize risk and guarantee the establishment of a minimum set of
> interlinkages in orbit.

I think risk minimization is one of the most important things we should
try to do. Risk and the perception of risk are the critical obstacles
to raising money for space oriented businesses.

......Andrew