New Book on Space Colonies

>
> > I don't EVER expect private enterprise to get orbital society
> > established simply because of the multitude of economic and
> > technical interlinkages required make it unprofitable for any
> > first mover to act.
>
> I differ with you on this point: I believe that the obstacles to
> private enterprise creating a spacefaring civilization can be
overcome.

Did you ever hold two conflicting thoughts in your head at once? By
accepting one postulate I too think that we can create a spacefaring
civilization, and OTH I see a path encumbered by obstacles.

I keep posting to this list because I dream of the future, and I
like details to make my dreams more real.

What is that postulate, you may ask? It's simply that a product or
service is identified that has such tremendous value and can only be
provided in orbit, that the expense of establishing a bare minimum
of orbital infrastructure becomes bearable.

I haven't seen hide nor hare of that such a product or service, thus
my pessimism.

> I think a close analysis of the details of the path ahead will
reveal
> that the obstacles are not similar to mountains which must be
climbed
> but rather resemble a series of locks which must be picked. I
envision
> a struggle less like boxing and more like Aikido. There are
currents of
> history all around us, and if we understand them we can move with
them
> rather than against them, deflecting only a small amount in order
to
> direct the force in the direction most congenial to our desired
> outcome. This may mean changing the desired outcome into something
more
> accessible. It most certainly does require study of the way
private
> enterprise functions, the dynamics of the political process, and a
> clear-eyed appreciation of where we stand in history.

A wise strategem. Being in the right place at the right time and
dong the right things can be like going with the current of a river,
rather than paddling against it.

But the devil is in the details. How do you know that you're at the
right place, at the right time, and that your plan is the right one?

>
> The biggest mistake I see in thinking about how to get from here
to
> there is in trying to overconstrain both the endpoint and the
path.
> Orbital colonies will come when they make economic sense. They
will
> make economic sense because they serve some market or other.

You're right of course, but my question is what is that market? I
don't see many space related business plans in the business life.
Occasionally one has entered the periphery of my life and always it
lacked almost all of the fundamentals required for serious
consideration.

> Create the market, and the colonies will come.

That's a heck of a big assumption. What if there is no market?

In the process of creating the
> market, we have to pass through every single point on a path from
where
> we are right now to where we want to be. Only if we think
carefully
> about the next step, the step we will take tomorrow (as in Sunday
> August 31st 2003, not some vaguely imagined future) will we have
any
> influence on making things happen the way we want them to. The big
> picture stuff has already been done by Von Braun, O'Neill, and
others.
> The nitty-gritty is up to us.

As I'm reading your post I'm reaching the conclusion that we're both
on the same page. If I accept the postulate that a future market
develops then all you've written is logically consistent and I have
no quibbles at all. OTH, if I don't accept on faith that a market
will develop for a product that I can't yet imagine, then I don't
see what the points are that we have to pass through to get to where
we want to be.

>
> I believe that the critical issue which opens the next lock is
cheap
> access to LEO. This means we should support any and all attempts
to
> bring down those costs. The best bet at this stage is supporting
the
> suborbital startups and the dot com millionaires like Elon Musk.
The
> other thing needed is to propagate the memes that will encourage
people
> to take space seriously as a place where they personally can
business
> and as a place they might someday get to visit in person.

Yes, CATS is critical because it lowers the threshold for the
activities that require orbital presence. Further, with CATS I
believe that the memes required will flourish when the reality of
CATS becomes pertinent to the activities of an ever widening number
of people.

>
> > Orbital development will require a concerted push from Earth
> > societies. Now this need not be a government spending program,
> > rather it could be tax incentives, changes in laws, and other
acts
> > to minimize risk and guarantee the establishment of a minimum
set of
> > interlinkages in orbit.
>
> I think risk minimization is one of the most important things we
should
> try to do. Risk and the perception of risk are the critical
obstacles
> to raising money for space oriented businesses.
>
> ......Andrew

I'm going to address your last point is a separate post because I'm
think I need to lay out a bigger picture (OH NO, more verbiage from
this guy :)

TangoMan