economics of bootstrapping (was New Book on Space Colonies)

> More precisely, what are the markets that can allow
> a bootstrapping
> process to lead to orbital development?
>
If you look at today's space market, there really is
only a few three solid businesses sectors using space:
telecommunications, science and defense.

There are other markets out there that people like to
dream of, but right now there really is only three
solid markets. (remote sensing may become one in the
future but right now, they survive mostly to serve the
whims of the defense sector)

Of these three, science is the least of these in terms
of bootstrap potential. There simply is not enough
impetus out there to push the political cogs to
justify bootstrapping.

This leaves us with two real, present-day potentials:
telecoms and defense. In telecoms I am lumping in
direct broadcasting sats (some economists do not). I
am also lumping in navigation sats in with defense for
terms of this argument.

Focusing bootstrapping on these two existing markets
requires two totally different approaches as their
needs vary.

Defense looks into space in terms of how can you
protect the home country. With that in mind, there is
an urge there to have the high ground. Robots alone
are not enough to cut it, humans are needed up there.
The US marines have recently got funding to start
looking at a space troop launcher that could reach any
part of the world in 2 hours. The military has needs
to be able to place sensors into the skies within
hours, if not minutes. The current administration of
the US is pushing for a missile defense shield,
largely based in space.

The point here, is that all this will eventually lead
to the need to have an infrastructure in LEO in which
humans can live and work. At first this may be
military only, but where military goes, so do
contractors. As the military builds up in space, so
too will the civilian population and associated
services needed to support the defense effort.

The comsat market however is more driven by economics.
The capital that this sector can muster was shown in
the attempts in the late 90s to build huge LEO
constellations. While the LEO ventures proved to not
be profitable yet, it does illustrate that there are
companies that are willing AND CAPABLE of putting
together billions of dollars to put in an
infrastructure in space.

This leads me to think that this business sector is
the most promising for bootstrapping. We can talk all
you want about markets that do not exist like SPS,
tourism and mining as I do believe that these markets
will eventually emerge given time. However, the
telecoms market is a mature space sector that in the
late nineties spent more than the military on space
hardware (according to futron studies).

That being said, I am interested in ways to bootstrap
this already successful market. My personal belief is
that this can be done by providing services to this
customer base. Some of these services have been
discussed here in the past, others not. Ones that
come to mind that can be done with existing
infrastructure are:
- in-orbit repair
- refueling
- upgrading/reconfiguring systems (swapping
payloads!)
- debris removal

The need for these services will eventually cause a
need for more bootstrapping. Eventually refueling
will become a large enough business that it will
become cheaper to manufacture fuel in space and/or
mine it from the moon or NEO.

Orbital debris has to go somewhere, eventually someone
will want to reuse all this junk just like they do
with today's junkyards. So manufacturing facilities
may emerge. Humans will eventually be needed to
support these facilities. These facilities will in
turn will be used to support upgrading and repairing
existing systems. Growth will just naturally occur.

Meanwhile, this market will have side effects like
increasing launches, which will in turn lower the cost
of launching. This will enable other business to
form, thus starting a true economy which exists in
space.

So there's my two cents on the space markets needed.
Not as glamorous as SPS or tourism, but I do believe
it is more feasible.

Ryan Z