economics of bootstrapping (was New Book on Space Colonies)

> Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. As long
> as a cheaper
> substitute is available at the moment of decision,
> remote operation
> will trump LEO infrastructure.
I'm not going to really argue this point to much. I
through this scenario out there as a possible way of
building up. All I can say is that there is a WANT by
the military to have humans in space and generally in
the US when they want it, it usually happens.
Currently the Air force and other branches are
investing billions into space and have stated a need
for human flown missions at least through suborbital
space. As we've discussed before on this list, remote
operations just cannot handle all the tasks needed.

[snip]
>
> What you said is true, but the economiuc activity of
> this sector is
> Earth based. I don't see how it opens up the
> floodgates for orbital
> development and thus bootstrapping. All this sector
> does is use
> space as a location.
>
for the near term, all space activity is based on
using space as a location. Even SPS uses space as a
location. The key here I believe is that by making it
a more important location and a more developed
location, eventually this will grow to the needs where
humans are needed.

[snip]
> > - in-orbit repair
>
> Considering that most satellites are one-offs, or
> from small design
> families, that there is no commonality of
> components, the scope of
> the repair work is going to be very limited. Granted
> that sending
> your tug up to GEO and reaffixing a lose wire will
> have utility,
> especially when the alternative is scrapping a $100
> million project.
>
not claiming that hte market here is huge but it is
significant. Look at how much we spent sending up the
shuttle to fix satellites, this has been done multiple
times. Just look at the last few years for
opportunities that if such a capability had existed,
money was to be made. these include the fixing of
resources like landsat, retrofitting hubble telescope,
saving numerous comm sats whose rockets did not boost
them high enough, fixing the countless failures that
have happened to boeing satellites due to their flawed
solar panel design (i believe this is upto 8 so far)
and the list goes on.

This may not seem at first significant, but we are
looking at ways to increase operations in space beyond
that which currently exist. Pursuing things like
these help demonstrate what else is possible.

> > - refueling
>
> Most satellites use hypergolic fuels. Where will the
> fuel come from?
> Some are quite difficult to work with, so what
> happens if the fuel
> explodes and takes your tug and satellite with it?
> How easy will it
> be for you to get insurance on your next go round?
>
The real money here is not GEO, but LEO, where
satellite time is measured in 1-5 years and in the
case of military satellites even in months. This is a
big enough market that the military is already
shelling out money for this (see orbital express, a
topic previously discussed here).

>
> > - upgrading/reconfiguring systems (swapping
> > payloads!)
>
> If the satellite is designed for this. To the best
> of my
> understanding this isn't the case. So now we're at a
> chicken/egg
> scenario. This plan will work 10 years after
> satellites are deployed
> that have this feature designed into them. So you'll
> need to
> establish your business and ride out a decade or
> more of no business
> until the expenses of switch over become favorable
> considering the
> substitution effect of just lofting a new satellite
> into orbit.
>
again look at the concept behind orbital express and
think leo not geo.

> > - debris removal
>
> I like this idea but who pays for it. It could
> benefit all players
> in orbit, but none of them individually will foot
> the bill.
>
This is true that no one wants to foot the bill but
this could be paid for in the same vein that garbage
collection in the states is. A tax upon those in
space which create the debris. Just like its terran
counterpart, this could turn out to be a very
profitable business.
> >
[snip]
>
> I wonder. How many satellites work form your market,
> what is their
> annual stationkeeping fuel requirement and how much
> will it cost to
> set up refinary capacity in orbit, fetch the raw
> materials, store
> the finished products, and transport them to the
> various satellites,
> while accounting for the delta v requirements of the
> tug as well.
>
the delta-v is very small for the tug. This is not an
original concept of mine, but again I point to orbital
explorer here as the tug concept. The actual
production in space of the fuel is a bit far off, but
I do see it as a natural evolution of this system.

> The things with SPS is that it is SUFFICIENT in
scale as to spawn
> derivatory businesses, all of which can serve
ancillory markets that
> could never afford to support the infrastructure
that they would need.

> The million dollar question is whether SPS can be
the catalyst from
> an economic/environmental perspective.

Agreed that SPS alone is sufficient scale to spawn
business. The problem I have with it is that its just
to large of a step for us to goto right now. We can
talk in an idealist state about how great it is for
society, but the fact of the matter is, the government
is just not interested in investing in it. It is only
through the continued, incremental method will we
advance toward a state of more space utilization.

The only way I see SPS ever becoming viable is if a
crisis emerges which calls for the need for cheaper
energy. Currently, the governments of the world are
content on having an oil-based economy, and in the
future going towards a hydrogen based economy.
Neither one of these scenarios gives the government
the impetus to go forward and fund a large project
like SPS.

Show me a crisis significant enough to spur the US
into investing in SPS and then you'll make me a tue
believer that such a large step can be taken. Until
then, I'll keep my investment capital (and my career
path) in businesses which incrementally advance our
emergence into a space faring society.

Ryan Z