Diversification

From: Al Globus [mailto:aglobus@...]

The fatal fraw in O'Neil's work was assumptions about shuttle flight
rates and cost. He assumed the 70's era figures ($500/lb and 50 flights
a year) plus a follow on freighter. Of course, these figures were
orders-of-magnitude optimistic.

You're absolutely right of course. So we might say that O'Neill's proposals
only become practical if and when we have a space transportation system
which makes good on the promises made for the Shuttle.

I was more referring to the assumption on the part of many Mars enthusiasts
that since we haven't built Island One in the year 2001, it's obviously the
case that Mars is a better target for settlement than orbital space. But of
course Mars settlement is just as dependent on improvements in space
transportation systems as is space settlement.

Regards,

Mike Combs

From:
Al Globus [mailto:aglobus@...]
The fatal fraw in O'Neil's work was assumptions about shuttle flight
rates and cost. He assumed the 70's era figures ($500/lb and 50 flights
a year) plus a follow on freighter. Of course, these figures were
orders-of-magnitude optimistic.

You're absolutely right of course. So we might say that O'Neill's proposals only become practical if and when we have a space transportation system which makes good on the promises made for the Shuttle.

I was more referring to the assumption on the part of many Mars enthusiasts that since we haven't built Island One in the year 2001, it's obviously the case that Mars is a better target for settlement than orbital space. But of course Mars settlement is just as dependent on improvements in space transportation systems as is space settlement.
Regards,
Mike Combs