Bootstrapping Hawaii

I'll take the risk of introducing anothr analogy into the debate.
The way I see suborbital technology for space tourism is akin to hot
air balloning. It's a niche market, entirely tourist driven. Nobody
gets on a ballon to travel.
Ballooning is profitable too- in fact, it's not a bad paradigm. You don't exactly go anywhere, but people are quite willing to pay for a trip anyway. You get a nice badge and everything. Same with suborbital, except you get your astronaut wings.
You get on a jet to go someplace in order to do something.
Yes, but you can also get on a cruise ship and do nothing. Think of orbit as doing a cruise around the world. Zero-g is thrown in at no extra cost.
Sub-orbital will let you sightsee but it won't get you someplace
where you can earn a buck, or spend a buck on leisure.
People spend a buck to balloon, and that doesn't go anywhere specifically. Will they spend enough bucks to make it profitable? Nobody knows, although the Mig flights suggest they might.
Even if orbital tourism becomes tachnologically possible It already is.
it still
needs a destination, otherwise it's just a new-fangled balloon.
No, because orbit is a destination. People want to stay up for a week or more ideally, and they are going to be prepared to pay. That really needs a hotel.

As soon as you have orbital tourism, then somebody will launch a hotel (arguably that's what the ISS is, but the ISS isn't going to cut it for long.). Then you need staff (arguably the astronauts are staff right now ;-) ). It just spirals outwards. Launch costs go down due to volume. Then you need construction crew, chefs, repair men, plumbers- the list goes on and on. At some point it's cheaper to get raw materials from the moon than the earth. Or Phobos, or Deimos. Even Mars.

This is a blessed spiral. If we can seriously get onto this spiral then mankind will get into space (rather than just a few astronauts and cosmonauts). If we don't... we may not; we probably will not, unless there is a breakthrough (but they are relatively rare, compared to incremental improvements). Maybe 20 years, if things go well; maybe less, maybe more. Then you will be able to buy a ticket if you are only above averagely wealthy; rather than obscenely wealthy. I think we will know more within 5 years. Suborbital will either be going well or not; large scale orbital will look possible or not.

Alternatively, the Ruskies may get us there, all on their own (ok, with American travel agents). They already have orbital space tourism after all. Either way, we'll know more in the next few years.
TangoMan