Chunnel as metaphor (was Bootstrapping Hawaii)

>>
>> That's not the appropriate analogy: the chunnel was impossible
> until
>> people had achieved similar but smaller goals.
>
> Actually it is - Here's my perspective.
>
> Chunnel = Orbital economy;
> Chunnel workers = orbital players working to same goal;
> Chunnel completion = establishment of multinodal economy with many
> interlinked profit centers.
>
> This is what I interpret where you're coming far. Correct me if I'm
> wrong.
>
> Chunnel = orbital project;
> Chunnel workers = orbital project workers;
> Chunnel completion = successful orbital project completion.

This is where we disagree - I don't think any single project can serve
as a model for an economy. Every economy that has been run as a single
project has failed miserably. The only way for an economy to run
effectively is for there to be multiple independent players. There is
simply no way for a small group of people to absorb and analyze all of
the information needed to maintain the necessary dynamism. A single
project with a single goal can stay on track because there is only one
goal, and everyone is working towards it. Even so it is only possible
if the path is well enough trodden that most of the hazards are
understood - that way the people at the top can focus their attention
on the novel hazards and leave the familiar ones in the hands of
specialists. Unfamiliar hazards mean no specialists, which means the
people running the show have to deal with everything. This causes
information overload and project failure.

For a model of an economy we have to look to an economy, not a project.
A possible candidate might be some subset of the global economy, such
as information technology, or transportation.

If you look at the way transportation has developed in capabilities, a
lot of things which were only novelties (analogous to suborbital
tourism) turned out to be key enablers of later developments. Early
flight was a novelty, but it developed into a major industry. Bicycles
were toys initially, then they became a major form of transportation,
and helped to develop technologies that went into motor cars and
airplanes. Now very few people take bikes seriously as transportation
(umm... except for the majority of the world's population, that is :-)

The key thing about an enabling technology as part of an economy is
that it is not an end in itself, and does not necessarily lie along a
linear path to the final destination. All that is necessary is that
some subcomponent be enabling to some other application, the way
lightweight high efficiency drive mechanisms from bicycles were to the
Wright flyer.

......Andrew