Chunnel as metaphor (was Bootstrapping Hawaii)

> >>> Actually it is - Here's my perspective.
> >>>
> >>> Chunnel = Orbital economy;
> >>> Chunnel workers = orbital players working to same goal;
> >>> Chunnel completion = establishment of multinodal economy with
many
> >>> interlinked profit centers.
> >>>
> >>> This is what I interpret where you're coming far. Correct me
if I'm
> >>> wrong.
> >>>
> >>> Chunnel = orbital project;
> >>> Chunnel workers = orbital project workers;
> >>> Chunnel completion = successful orbital project completion.
> >>
> >> This is where we disagree - I don't think any single project
can serve
> >> as a model for an economy.
> >
> > Neither do I.
>
> I don't understand how this squares with your analogy above
between the
> Chunnel and an orbital economy.

The Chunnel wasn't a constructed by a monolithic organization. It
had a general contractor and scores and scores of subcontractors.
The general was the prime mover and the subs profited at their
specialties.

Most projects in orbit will be designed to serve the specific market
which the sponsoring organization is most familiar with. They will
bring their expertise to bear but may find it daunting to tackle all
of the ancillary aspects with which they have absolutely no
experience.

In an economy, there are multiple players, each with their own
expertise and specialized equipment. In a project there is one
player. One player doesn't interact with anyone (in space) therefore
there is no economic gain (in space.)

The Chunnel contractor didn't know how to do everything. The scope
of the project was beyond their ability to handle inhouse. Even if
they could have done it, they have profited by employing the
expertise and efficiency of the subs who are better, faster and
cheaper at their narrow and dedictated specialties.

Chunnel employed many separate players = orbital economy employs
many separate players. The Chunnel is the metaphor for an orbital
economy.

Something in orbit that requries a coordinated effort that can pull
many different economic players from Earth into orbit, where they
can profit from their expertise and know that there will be someone
to hire them, buy from them, sell to them, etc will make a lasting
economy because the risk is minimized.

Build a station, a hotel, an orbital tower, a chip factory, a
pharmaceutical plant, a military platform, a Mars vessel
construction dock, and yes, SPS, and you have the start of an
economy that can grow and adapt in the future. The enterprises that
follow don't need to be able to do everything because there will be
other specialty actors in the game.

I won't even go into the aspect of wealth creation from money flows
that occur strictly in orbit.

Have I been able to sufficiently convey the point and erase some of
the confusion?

>
> > There is
> >> simply no way for a small group of people to absorb and analyze
all of
> >> the information needed to maintain the necessary dynamism.
> >
> > Very true. That's why these bootstrapping ventures don't lead
> > anywhere. They're all single projects, they don't interact, they
> > don't create dynamism and specializtion.
>
> Which bootstrapping ventures are you referring to?

Sorry, I was spitting these responses out so quickly earlier today.
Sloppy on my part. Bootstrapping ventures, simply by being properly
defined as bootstrapping ventures, would have to lead to other
opportunities. What I meant to say was that stand-alone ventures
that don't economically interact with other players will have a
tougher time getting off the ground and if they do, will likely add
little value to ventures that follow them. They'll exist as part of
a terrestrial economy, be physically present in orbit, but add
nothing to an orbital economy. Think of North Sea Oil Platforms. If
Britain didn't get any tax revenue from them, if they were built in
Norway and staffed entirely by Norway, but were located in British
waters, then how are they helping Britain, how are they part of the
economy, how do they help support the industrial infrastructure in
Britain? They don't. They also don't help bootstrap the British Off-
Shore industry. But they will make money.

> >
> > All of your examples aptly demonstrated my point. They were all
> > interlinked to a greater economy. Bicycles and airplanes served
> > functions within the whole rather than acting as the whole.
>
> The only ET resource utilization ideas that have a hope of success
are
> those that are interlinked to a greater economy, namely earthbound
> economies. There is no way for the whole to be constructed all at
once,
> independent and self-sufficient. It must necessarily grow out of
the
> earthbound economy. The network of connections will initially be
with
> earth based industry, and only later will there be
interconnections
> between space based (or space-oriented) businesses.
>
> ......Andrew

Is anyone out there getting even an inkling of what I'm trying to
convey? Are you all being a good devil's advocate and trying to get
me to nail it down because you understand the economic principles
involved and you just want me to fill in the blanks. Or am I not
making sense to you at all?

How much detail do you want on the economic development process? I
can start jargonizing and getting into the economic nitty-gritty but
considering the dearth of responses to previous economic topics I've
raised I doubt that would be a popular strategy on my part. I try to
keep it as general as I can but that does handicap me in my
arguments. I've got loads of journal articles and texts from my
doctoral days that I could offer as support for my points.

Just think why aluminum smelters aren't closer to their primary
markets or closer to their ores. Why chip fabs aren't built in the
Gobi desert.

I'm not saying that a whole economy is necessary and must spring
into existence at once. Yes, the economic activities will be
intricately tied to those of Earth, but economic activity isn't
solely defined as a final buyer and seller relationship. There exist
relationships that support the process that leads to the final end
user. The value chain. Wealth will flow from Earth to orbit when
orbit has something to offer Earth. Do you really think that every
economic transaction in orbit must have a terrestrial presence? Why?

Here is a simple economic activity flowchart (in words): Boeing
builds a NEO mining vessel and sells it to Broken Hill Mining Co.
They subcontract its operation to pilots from Quantas. They arrive
at the NEO and BH miners get to work. They bring back ore and
volitiles. They sell the liquid ammonia and methane and water to
Dupont, who break it down and refines it into different chemicals.
They in turn sell CO2, N2, O2, as well as fertilizer to Cargill so
that the orbital greenhouses can grow food. Cargill sells the food
to everyone else. BH sells it's platinum to Johnson Matthey, which
transports it back to Earth with the United shuttle. Broken Hill
sells the iron to the orbital operations of US Steel and the
aluminum oxide to ALCAN. US Steel and Alcan in turn sell their metal
to fabricators which make the products into a hotel, an orbiting
tower, a SPS, a communications array, etc. These enterprises sell
their services to Earth in the form of tourism, communication, and
energy. Now it becomes so much simpler for the smaller ventures to
establish themselves. Someone thinks that they can make money
growing cotton in space? Hey, try it. Maybe someone will buy it to
make clothes. What are they risking? They don't have to mine,
refine, or transport anything. If they want air, food, water,
quarters, trasnportation, energy, well there's someone already there
to provide them with these goods/services and which they have no
expertise in anyway. They become free riders!

If the above example is too complex in scope then reduce it to food,
water, energy, air, waste disposal. Now if you're a crystal grower,
a hotel operator, a fancy-shmancy new fangled computer chip company,
then you don't have to deal with these issues because you can pay
someone else who specializes in them. Therein lies the chrysalis of
your orbital economy. These actors are interlinked and interacting.
They are creating wealth from their interactions. Some transactions
may involve a terrestrial buyer/seller but some will not. Some
interactions will be so localized that they'll never interact with
Earth. They will be completely dependent on the success of their
fellow orbital players for their own success. They'll fall somewhere
in the middle of the value chain.

What I've described needn't be in the realm of fantasy. All that is
needed is a prime driver. One-off ventures don't get us there.
Bootstrapping will need critical mass and development will be
stymied until it is achieved, if ever.

Yes, you are right that the orbital economy must grow out of the
terrestrial economy, just as the fur economy of the New World grew
out of the demand Europe had for fur, just as the Tea & Spices
economy of India grew out of the demand Europe had for tea and
spices. But just as those economies were linked to the dominant
market, they also spawned small-scale domestic markets which grew
into much more.

The cod fishery in the Grand Banks as practiced by the 16th Century
Portuguese didn't do much for the economy of Newfoundland, but it
did bring wealth to Portugal. Did it help bootstrap the economic
development of Newfoundland? No. It was an isolated project that did
nothing for Newfoundland's economic development because it didn't
interact at all with other players in the New World. That's the
same as sub-orbital and orbital tourism that visit orbit. Lots of
passengers going there, but no reason to stay and develop. If they
do want to develop, there is no one else to rely on for skills and
services that you don't possess. For many ventures, substitutes will
be a cheaper alternative than having to embark on all of those
ancillary processes just to support your primary expertise.

Do you see what I'm trying to say?

I'm not saying no money can be made in space. It will be done one
day, but while profit in space is a necessary precursor to further
development, in and of itself, it isn't sufficient. An orbital
economy will require orbital interactions and one-off (even
profitable ones) projects don't provide that.

TangoMan