Chunnel as metaphor (was Bootstrapping Hawaii)

--- In ssi_list@... "Arthur P. Smith"
>
> > We can boil it down to two possibilities. A) Something that
already
> > has a presence in the Terrestrial economy and which is known to
exist in
> > greater quantity or to be more easily manufactured in space. As
of yet,
> > there is no gold in space, and we have found no zero-gravity
silk.
>
> But remember the terrestrial economy is a lot more than mining
> and even manufacturing. Look at the largest sectors of economic
> activity - for example from the US Census Bureau Economic Census
> numbers: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/econ97.html

You're touching upon a very important point here, IMHO, of course.

Take it further, to it's next step. What are the implications if the
majority of an economy doesn't consist of mining?

How much of an economy consists of domestic, rather than
international, transactions?

See my sketchy analysis, with a startling population proposal, in:

> Manufacturing, with a payroll of $572 billion in 1997, is the
> biggest sector;

Domestic and international markets served.

> Health care and social assistance comes next at $378 billion;

Domestic market entirely.

> next come finance and insurance,

Domestic and international markets served.

> retail trade, wholesale trade,

Domestic market entirely.

> and professional, scientific and technical services,
> each in the $200 to $300 billion range.

Domestic and international markets served.

> Mining is actually one
> of the smallest payroll areas, at $20 billion/year, and sales are
> not so large either; that may be in part because our highest-cost
> resources (oil in particular) are imported, rather than mined in
the US.

Take a longitudinal look at the significance of metals recycling in
the economy and run it against mining's market performance.

> But still, there's a lot more to the economy than mining...

Absol-darn-tootly!

> Within manufacturing, the highest payroll and sales areas are
> transportation equipment (cars, trucks, aerospace), computer
> and electronic products, machinery and fabricated metal products,
> and (esp. in sales) chemicals and food.

All of which share either characteristics inherent to American
strengths, or are not amenable to economic transport because of
time, expense or mass issues.

> We probably won't be manufacturing cars in space any time soon;

HEH! Didn't Pluto Nash have a car manufactured in space?

> anything involving complex chemical or mechanical processes seems
> difficult to imagine in an early space industrial center.

Especially if faced with terrestrial substitutes or if the industry
must be supported by an orbital domestic market.

> But who really knows?

I sure wish "who" would show up on this list and share his wisdom.

The economic census at least gives you a picture
> of what people are willing to pay for right now...
>
> Arthur

The questions that your post spawns are for me, how critical is an
orbital domestic market and that we shouldn't count on any exports
for which there is a terrestrial source or substitute.

So what lesson do we learn from these facts that you've brought
forth?

TangoMan