BewaConsensus Science

> What backs the consensus? That's the important distinction.

The consensus is only backed up by the self interest of the various
scientists involved in (1) desiring to avoid being shown wrong at a
later date, and (2) desiring to make a name for themselves if they are
able to show that the consensus is wrong.

Seems a little tenuous as a basis for a modern technological
civilization, doesn't it?

On the other hand, it's brought us this far...
The same basic principle of emergent self-organization underlies market
economies, so it certainly works in some situations. The big problem
is that there is a transient period surrounding times of change during
which large deviations from ideal behavior can occur. It's important
that policy not be made based on science associated with these
transients (just as it's important not to make policy based on the
assumption that market transients represent genuine new trends). The
case in environmental science appears to be that the basic timescales
for the science are long, but the policymaking timescales are short.

......Andrew