A sad thought but perhaps a nessisary one

I am writing this after thinking about why we never built space
colonies
and why we might not build them in my lifetime. I am an advocate of
space colonization
and my conclusions are depressing although I think they need to be
addressed
if we are ever going to colonize space.
Firstly, why would the government or power companies go for building
solar power
satelites in the first place? From a business standpoint there are
cheaper
alternatives such as nuclear power or coal and oil which have much
shorter periods
before they make a profit than the projected decade or more before the
solar power
satelites start paying for themselves. The problem there is the startup
cost,
Mr Oniel projected the minimum cost at 90 billion dollars back in 1978!
Nuke plants and other methods have costs in the millions and you want
them to pay
billions? Yes it is cheaper to run solar power sats and the profit
potential
is much greater but the cost of setting up the system is so high it
would take
a long time before they saw profits. Also they have power plants
already in place with
a lot of money invested. You want them to scrap those? The government
getting involved
has a problem too. Basically you are asking the government to compete
with power
companies, that will fly really well with the lobbyists and those voters
who work
for power companies! If you don't do that you end up having to force
the power companies
to pay for the government program through some sort of tax so the
government will get
it's investment back, this may not fly either.
Thats not the worst. Why would you need an orbiting colony anyway?
You only
need an orbiting work camp with water and air recycling and rotation for
gravity.
A small hydroponic farm could grow some crop like soy beans for food.
It might be mostly
self sufficent but hardly a colony. You may not need many people in
orbit anyway.
Teleoperated robots could do most of the work controlled from the
ground. You don't need
to feed a robot. From a business standpoint why would you build a huge
Bernal sphere or
similar space city when a much cheaper setup like two habitats connected
by tethers
rotating for gravity with the same period as their orbit would do fine
and be cheaper?
Why do the industry in orbit? You could ship the parts up from the
moon.
The shipping costs for raw ore or finished parts is the same. All the
people in orbit do
is assemble the parts like building a model airplane and turn the things
on.
The lunar base will need more people and perhaps that might turn
into a colony.
It is hard to say. Teleoperation would be harder to do on the moon
assuming
you were doing it from Earth but certainly a lot of things would be
automated.
Since you know exactly what you need to build and what types of ores
exist on the moon
you could design automated smelters and automated factories. They would
be expensive to ship but once on the moon you never need to ship them
again. Shipping the parts into
orbit via mass driver would cost as much per pound as shipping ore but a
lot of ore
has waste which a finished item would not. You already have an
industrial base
on the moon, why build a second one in orbit? Nuclear power is safe on
the moon
or you can have power satelites beam power to the moon. Building a base
on the moon
involves building pressurized huts which is an easier task than building
an
orbital structure, the minerals are right there and you don't need to
build the "ground".
The engineering is certainly less complicated than a large orbital
habitat.
Even worse, if you talk to an average guy about building miles long
objects in space
he will look at you like you have a second head! You could tell him
space construction
would be cheaper and easier but he will think of the ISS and how
difficult it is to build
bridges and skyscrapers, he will think of the big dig, and he will
snicker.
He will think you are nuts, basically. The average person isn't a
visionary and isn't
very imaginative. He has been told what can be done by NASA and never
questions it.
Worse, many of the advocates of space colonization are science fiction
fans.
To most people science fiction fans are nerds and weirdos with bad
hygene and severe
mental problems. Anyone who has been to a science fiction convention
such as Boston's Arisia will very quickly come away with this
impression. Who listens to crazy people?
To be sure there are plenty of science fiction fans who are not crazy
nerds but
they tend not to stand out next to the smelly 300lbs guy with the large
beard who
wears a dirty tee-shirt that doesn't fit him or the guy in the dress.
Lets not forget
guys who take Star Trek seriously or...well, go to a con and see. With
these as your
salesmen who will buy the product?
Now before I get flamed I am just pointing out the possible problems
to be overcome.
Back around 1969 you could have sold people on space colonization but it
wasn't
ready until 1977ish when people thought space travel was a wasteful
irrelevant idea.
You need to sell the idea to the public, the voting public. If enough
of the voters want
it the government might build it. Maybe we need movies and TV shows set
on or around
island 3 colonies. The only one I can think of is Japan's Mobile Suit
Gundam.
We need more and they need to be popular. We need to infect the people
with
the dream and then maybe something can be done.
I hope this email creates discussion and posible solutions. I would
also love it if
someone finds flaws in my arguements. I want to have colonies in space.