A sad thought but perhaps a nessisary one Forum: SSI-List
Thread: A sad thought but perhaps a nessisary one
--- In ssi_list@... "danj_caslaw"
> --- In ssi_list@... "Ed Minchau"
> <stations
> anytime soon either. Instead, there will be a progression from
> small temporary dwellings to larger wheel-shaped structures a few
> hundred meters across at the most. Only then will serious work
> begin on real colonies that hold say ten thousand people. And there
> will have to be a really good economical reason for doing it
> then...And I expect that the third, fourth, and fifth
> generations of space colonists will find it progressively easier to
> build larger and larger structures for a profit.>>
>
> How would you expect the progression of space colonies to occur?
As
> in, would there be so many torii built before the space colonists
> moved on the next stage, and then, so many Bernal spheres built
> before attempting an Island 3? If this is how it would happen,
how
> many Bernals would you expect to be completed before the next
stage
> came, 5? 20? 100? For what reasons?
construction on a single wheel-shaped structure capable of
supporting 200 would be well underway, and the construction of which
would occupy the time of a substantial minority of those in space.
Similarly, I expect construction on the first 20000-person habitat
when there are about 10000 people living in space on various smaller
habitats. Of those 10000, perhaps only 50-200 would be directly
working on the new habitat; the rest of the workforce would be doing
other profitable things. After all, by the time there are 10000
people living in space, many of those will be children; and many
people will be working in many different fields besides
construction, just like any group of people on earth.
>
> Or would the space colonists progress from building torii to
> building Bernals and O'Neill's simultaneously, two groups pursuing
> each option seperately?
Competition is certainly possible. I sure hope so.
>
> How well developed might Earth-space colonies trade be at any
point
> along this progression?
In the early stages, trade would be between the orbital settlement
and the Earth. However, as more and more people move into space,
trade between space settlements would become more and more
important. By the time there are 10000 people in space, trade
between orbiting settlements would be much more important, though
perhaps not as important in the (vastly increased) trade with
Earth. As larger colonies are built and they begin to spread out
around the solar system, trade between colonies will likely overtake
trade with earth.
Ed