President's Commission on Moon, Mars and Beyond

>
>> works. There is no need to build infrastructure in advance of humans.
>> Insisting on doing so makes it more likely the project will fail
>> before
>> anyone even gets to the moon.
>>
> You seem to be saying that just putting people on the moon before
> anything happens automaticly makes the mission a success.

No. I'm saying insisting on robots doing jobs for which humans are
better suited reduces the chances of success (that's point #1). In
addition, putting large complex technical development programs in the
critical path when they are not needed further reduces the chances of
success (point #2).

> This
> discussion is verging on the same type of absolute reasoning that some
> people have that Mars is the only valid place for a space habitat
> because it is a planet and humans live on planets. A whole section of
> NASA (manned flight) has been wasting a lot of money for decades using
> the reasoning that there cannot be a space program that the public will
> support if there are not humans being blasted into space.

I have problems with the manned spaceflight folks at NASA, since
they've screwed up so badly on Shuttle and ISS. On the other hand,
they're what we have, and there's no use pretending they'll go away.
There simply isn't that kind of political will in Washington.
>
>> Nor will the fact that an individual human and associated life support
>> systems is more flexible and capable than the equivalent mass of
>> machinery. For exploration and early phases of development
>> flexibility
>> is an absolute necessity.
>
> Come, come! The first phase is detailed mapping all done by
> satellites,
> a type of robotic system.

Satellites are not what people usually think of as robots. Even under
the more restrictive definition of robot there are many cases where
robotic missions are preferable. I fully support robotic exploration -
my objection is to asking robots to do tasks for which humans are a
better choice. Complex tasks that require flexibility and on the spot
judgment are simply not well suited to robots. That is precisely the
kind of task that will come up over and over again in the early phases
of lunar exploration and development. By all means the humans
explorers should be supported by robotic pathfinders where possible.

The basic issue comes down to this: if we want to really explore with
an eye to eventual human presence, we should send humans early in the
process. Humans will return more of the relevant information for the
buck than robots can. In addition, sending humans will help us build
infrastructure for human spaceflight. Once the infrastructure (in the
form of launchers and vehicles, as well as possibly small lunar bases)
is in place commercial ventures will be able to take advantage of it,
and it it is commercial ventures that will pave the way for a true
spacefaring civilization.

.....Andrew