Lunar Solar Power Stations vs. The O'Neill Proposal

[mailto:spacesettlers@... On Behalf Of Ian Woollard

> Earth launch options critically depend on how much it costs to launch.
> Early studies by NASA were trying to find a use for the Shuttle, which

> should be clear is a fairly expensive launch system. The numbers came
> out pretty high with the Shuttle. (Gee, do you think?) I'm not sure
> whether that's what the GD-Convair study did too.

I'd be real surprised if the study hadn't assumed the kind of massive
HLLV Boeing had touted for SPS launch.

> I think in the long run that O'Neill's idea is good, and Criswell's
> option is even cheaper,

So do you see the avoidance of lunar lift costs as outweighing the
operational disadvantage of power stations which only operate half the
time? But then I see you're saying people place greater emphasis on
startup costs than ongoing costs, so maybe you're only saying the
startup costs are less, which I might even agree with (though I think it
would be much closer than if the comparison were with Earth-launch).

> I think the lunar resource options are higher risk, because you
> have to be able to process the lunar material, and that's very
> researchy thing right now.

That was my take on it too. In fact, when Criswell told me that the
GD-Convair study had considered the lunar materials option to be lower
risk, I initially thought he had just said the opposite of what he had
meant. I would have accepted that the O'Neill proposal was higher risk
(but ultimately produces the cheapest SPS).

> From earth launch perspective the numbers I've worked suggest
> that expendable Falcon I's launched a *lot* (and I *really*
> mean a lot) would bring the wallplug costs down to about $0.05/kWh,
> but I'm not very happy with that option (Falcon I is too small to
> launch people on, so a dirt cheap Falcon I wouldn't do much for
> space access, is cheap, reliable electricity enough of a goal on
> it's own if it doesn't lead to space colonisation????)

I think a world in which SPS starts out with Earth-launch for the first
few might still lead down the High Frontier road provided that we became
seriously committed to SPS as a solution to global energy needs. That
kind of commitment might not happen prior to the era that at least a few
SPS are up there and functioning productively.

Regards,

Mike Combs