Molaunches, and price goes down (was Earthbucks, billionaires, an

Forum: SSI-List
Thread: Molaunches, and price goes down (was Earthbucks, billionaires, an

# 21932 byhitssquad on May 27, 2008, 9:05 a.m.
Member since 2022-08-22

> Who is offering launch services at $100/lb? [...]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loaded_question

At what launch rate?

For humans? First class? Second class? Third class?

For cargo? Delicate (low g)? Medium (mid g)? Robust (high g)?

> why not go for a figure that is plausibly achievable, say
> dropping the cost from $7-10,000 per pound down to $1000.

"Chicken/egg. If you have the activity in orbit, then
yes, more launches are needed and price goes down."
-TangoMan

If you believe it is true, as you say, that with "more launches"
the "price goes down", would you mind giving your estimates for
robust-cargo launch costs at the following yearly launch rates?:

Launches/year . . . . . $cost/pound

3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
300,000
1,000,000

Could you explain how you might fill a habitat with, as you have
speculated, 250,000 settlers, without increasing the launch rate
beyond, say, 10 per year?

More on launch costs:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacex#Future_development

[Elon] Musk said "Long-term plans call for development of a heavy
lift product and even a super-heavy, if there is customer demand. We
expect that each size increase would result in a meaningful decrease
in cost per pound to orbit. For example, dollar cost per pound to
orbit dropped from $4,000 to $1,300 ($8,800/kg to $2,900/kg) between
Falcon 1 and Falcon 5. Ultimately, I believe $500 per pound
($1,100/kg) or less is very achievable." Musk said he expects to
offer $1,000 per kilogram by 2010.

If cost/pound were to drop to $500, do you suppose that communication-
satellite launch-rates might increase?