The next one hundred years

naaay. The main thing about your take on the next hundred years is that it's
too stately in its march, kinda like a mirrored Marxist version. The real
life is more chaostic and evolutionary in which the small changes slowly
build up and then BOOOOOM! The shit hit the fan! I noticed that there are a
lot of interests moving underground, interests that most of public are not
aware of. Some of them are commerical entrepraters who for various of
reasons are keeping a lot of trade secrets, others wanted to travel into
space but are afraid to be looked upon as weirdos, and so forth. Even many
states and governments have been exploring possible sites for spaceports
within their states.

The wild card in all this is SSTO spaceships. If the cost drop to $1,000 a
pound very fast, there will be a space rush as there was internet rush and PC
rush and gold ruse because the money is there and the cost barriers suddenly
get very low compared to the old day.

Frankly, in my humble opinion, most of the plans I have seen in few books
over last year are too complex. Beautiful, yes, but too complex! Do we
really need to build a seacity before we'll go to space? (al Marshall
Savage). Evolution dosen't work that way. It's the smal, the fast, the
nublie that will really drive the progress. You will find that the 20% of
effort will results in 80% of wealth in any given time and place. Then
there's a network effect which can amplify a few small companies' investments
manyfolds. A alliance of few companies can suddenly put a man or woman on
Mars way ahead of time and ahead of NASA.

But first, we need a cheap access to LEO. Once you have it, all bets are off.

Carl Mullin