The next one hundred years

Ravenart@... wrote:

> naaay. The main thing about your take on the next hundred years is that it's
> too stately in its march, kinda like a mirrored Marxist version. The real
> life is more chaostic and evolutionary in which the small changes slowly
> build up and then BOOOOOM! The shit hit the fan! I noticed that there are a
> lot of interests moving underground, interests that most of public are not
> aware of. Some of them are commerical entrepraters who for various of
> reasons are keeping a lot of trade secrets, others wanted to travel into
> space but are afraid to be looked upon as weirdos, and so forth. Even many
> states and governments have been exploring possible sites for spaceports
> within their states.
>
> The wild card in all this is SSTO spaceships. If the cost drop to $1,000 a
> pound very fast,

Umm. We're already at ~$1200/lb, but not for human cargo at
present. Actually at unit cost, rather than price, the Russians
are possibly down to maybe $300/lb already. Some estimates show
that a price below $200/lb is possible, with nothing very exotic.

> there will be a space rush as there was internet rush and PC
> rush and gold ruse because the money is there and the cost barriers suddenly
> get very low compared to the old day.

Probably. My guess is that this will be in the next 10-15 years.

> But first, we need a cheap access to LEO. Once you have it, all bets are off.

Agreed. There is a saying that LEO is halfway TO anywhere.
That's true; but it's also a lot more than halfway FROM anywhere.

> Carl Mullin
>

--
- Ian Woollard (ian.woollard@...)

"Is a planetary surface the right place for an expanding
technological civilization?"
- Gerard O'Neill