The next one hundred years

Al Globus wrote:

>
> Ian Woollard wrote:
>>Umm. We're already at ~$1200/lb, but not for human cargo at
>>present. Actually at unit cost, rather than price, the Russians
>>are possibly down to maybe $300/lb already. Some estimates show
>>that a price below $200/lb is possible, with nothing very exotic.
>
> This is a very unique opportunity. These costs are low for, IHMO, three
> reasons:
> -- all of the development costs are written off

Yes. However, if the market is going to be big enough; and
tourism is probably going to be a big enough market, the
amortised development costs should tend to zero per launch.

> -- excellent ex-Soviet engineers work for a tiny fraction of Western
> wages

Yes. Until the components and fuel start to become the most
significant cost factors, this will be significant.

> -- the Soviet Union made great rockets

Yes. They seem to have missed most of the pitfalls, and there's
plenty of subtle pitfalls in designing rockets.

--
- Ian Woollard (ian.woollard@...)

"Is a planetary surface the right place for an expanding
technological civilization?"
- Gerard O'Neill