10-Year Plan

jdr7181 wrote:

>Let's say for the sake of argument you have all been asked to
>participate in a project to define a 10-year plan for commercial
>space development. What are the most immediate needs?
>
Money. More specifically, an assured market in the 100's of billions of
dollars. Given that businesses generally don't do 10-year plans, we're
probably talking about a government program; so the most immediate need
is strong government funding for space activities. If it's the US we're
talking about, double NASA's budget, increase DoD space efforts, and get
DoE, NSF, and other departments involved in the space business. If it's
Europe, do the same with ESA, fund Galileo, fund the Aurora program to
the fullest, give scientists lots of money for space telescopes and the
like. Same in Japan. I think India, Russia and China are probably doing
about all they can manage in space right now.

The bureaucratic turf wars that have crippled NASA the last 30 years are
a simple consequence of declining budgets. Reverse that trend, and
there'll be plenty of room for good stuff to happen.

If you don't want to spend more tax dollars, get a commercial company to
provide the services you want (lunar outpost, scientific resupply, etc.)
in exchange for monopoly profits on other services (launch, LEO/GEO
servicing). Or establish some form of property rights that will allow
guaranteed "rents" for a while that won't be picked off by some cheap
new kid on the block.

My point: despite the fervent wishes of many, the free market isn't
going to get us there all by itself.

> What can be
>reasonably accomplished (commercially) in space over the next 10
>years?
>
Not sure what your parenthetical (commercially) is referring to. But we
got to the Moon in 8 years in the 60's; we can probably get a base set
up there in 5 years or less now. Orbiting hotels, robotic visits to
asteroids; all should be relatively easy for commercial companies in the
next few years if the money/market is there.

> What changes to policy/laws need to be made to better enssure
>commercial space operations by 2013?
>

Other than strong government funding, we need some way of guaranteeing
the market; a property rights system or monopoly grant of some sort.
Alan Wasser's "Space Settlement Initiative" http://spacesettlement.org/
isn't a bad start.

Arthur Smith (apsmith@...)