10-Year Plan

--- In spacesettlers@y..., "Arthur P. Smith" wrote:
> jdr7181 wrote:
>
> >Let's say for the sake of argument you have all been asked to
> >participate in a project to define a 10-year plan for commercial
> >space development. What are the most immediate needs?
> >
> Money. More specifically, an assured market in the 100's of
billions of
> dollars. Given that businesses generally don't do 10-year plans,
we're
> probably talking about a government program;

No, but nor am I taking about a business program either. Just
generally, what do we, the collective space advocacy community, need
to focus on in the next 10 years to make space commerce happen?

Ask yourself this: Where do I want the state of space to be in 25
years? Orbital infrastructure? Space-based industries? Larger space
station/more space stations? Moon Base? Mars Base? A human population
in space (or at least, not on Earth) exceeding 10,000 persons? Etc?

Now, what do we need to make your view of space (25 years from now) a
reality? Cheaper access to LEO? Business-friendly space law/policy?
Etc?

> My point: despite the fervent wishes of many, the free market isn't
> going to get us there all by itself.

In other words, there is absolutely, positively no way for the
private sector (business) to "open the space frontier" to commerce?
Government has to be involved?

> > What can be
> >reasonably accomplished (commercially) in space over the next 10
> >years?
> >
> Not sure what your parenthetical (commercially) is referring to.

Not government - for profit. money, money, money.

> But we
> got to the Moon in 8 years in the 60's; we can probably get a base
set
> up there in 5 years or less now. Orbiting hotels, robotic visits to
> asteroids; all should be relatively easy for commercial companies
in the
> next few years if the money/market is there.

That's the real problem to me, the market. Or more appropriately, the
lack of a market.

Jack