launch

Good points with respect to size of fleet and breakeven points.

You may wish to re-title the category "Operations cost per launch" to
"Operations and maintenance costs per launch".

Ron
******

"Ed Minchau"
11/21/02 12:56 PM
Please respond to spacesettlers

To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
cc:
Subject: [spacesettlers] Re: Launch

--- In spacesettlers@y..., rmenich@m... wrote:
> Suppose that we have the following alternatives:
>
> RLV Option
> Development costs: $6 billion
> Marginal manufacturing cost per unit: $400 million
> Operations cost per launch: $10 million
>
> ELV Option
> Development costs: $1.5 billion
> Marginal manufacturing cost per unit: $50 million
> Operations cost per launch: $60 million
>
> Which is the "better" option?
>

There are a few variables missing from the data: the number of RLVs
in a fleet and the maintenance costs on the fleet.

Without the maintenance costs, a fleet of 4 RLVs becomes better than
ELV after 61 launches, and a fleet of 7 after 73 launches, a dozen
after 93. The smaller the fleet, the more launches per vehicle
required to reach the break-even, and the greater the maintenance
costs. If the fleet is larger, then maintenance costs per unit
should be less than for a smaller fleet: less wear and tear on
individual vehicles, economies of scale for replacement parts, and so
on. A larger fleet also means more launches per year.

:) ed