launch

This is a very interesting train of discussion.

I believe launch costs have actually dropped recently with the rise of
Russian commercialism in the market: the converted soviet-era missiles
have launched things very inexpensively, and Sea Launch has (from what I
hear) greatly reduced costs to geosynchronous orbit. But this is a
one-time cost reduction that probably won't be sustainable without a
continued substantive market. Prices will likely rise as Russian
commercial firms get more firmly grounded and start looking for higher
profit margins in the market they've captured, and the resulting
reduction in market for western launch firms will force them back on the
launch markets where they have a monopoly and can keep prices high (NASA
and the US military).

What is really needed are new markets, beyond the currently stagnant
government and communications satellite industries. Is there a
sub-orbital market that could be served with large numbers of
launches? Fast package delivery? Tourism? Surveying/mapping? In a sense
we really need
to start over - which is I think where XCOR and related companies are
trying to get.

Arthur