launch

--- "Arthur P. Smith" wrote:
> What is really needed are new markets, beyond the
> currently stagnant
> government and communications satellite industries.
> Is there a
> sub-orbital market that could be served with large
> numbers of
> launches? Fast package delivery? Tourism?
> Surveying/mapping? In a sense
> we really need
> to start over - which is I think where XCOR and
> related companies are
> trying to get.

I think this is the most key factor, who is the
demand. Traditionally, the biggest user of
transportation systems is frieght. So I would tend to
go with your idea for fast package delivery for the
short term.

Surveying is a decent market but so far remote sensing
really hasn't lived up to its promises yet as the
bankruptcy of orbimage demonstrates.

Tourism I believe will only be a small percentage and
there is still a long way to go till we can have
affordable tourism beyond suborbital. Nothing short
of colonization would help push this particular market
sector forward to a realistic multi-billion dollar
industry. Just look at how few tourists go below 1000
ft in the ocean. There are commercial companies that
will take you down there as a tourist, but the market
just is not there to support such a niche tourist
industry. I personally believe this is analogous to
the same crowd that will venture into space.

Overall, until we see either colonization or heavy
industry going into space (mining, manufacturing), I
do not think there will be a driver to lower costs.
Unfortunately, both of those sectors are also waiting
for the launch costs to go down so right now its kind
of a chicken and egg scenario.

-Ryan Z