Smells Like Teen Spirit

Ryan Z wrote:

>Right now it seems like we have a chicken and egg
>scenario. We need CATS to develop a space market, but
>we need a space market to bring about CATS.
>
Perhaps CATS as you define it isn't possible yet? The Russian launchers
and SeaLaunch are already 10 times less expensive per pound than the
shuttle - but that's not cheap enough apparently... If none of the many
efforts I mentioned are going to provide cheap access to space, then
where do you see it coming from?

>As far as the property issue, I really don't think
>that is holding anyone back. We've pretty much have a
>model right now (based off telecom sats) that what we
>put into space, we retain ownership of.
>
The question is use of space resources, not your own equipment, where
the law is clear. Closest at hand is lunar material, NEO's should be
shortly after that - without clear legal authority or rights, the
situation is identical to the problems with the "Law of the Sea" treaty
- there's no way to own undersea resources outside of national
boundaries, so nobody will invest real money in efforts to prospect for
resources in international waters (or in space) or in infrastructure to
extract and use them.

> I think it is
>premature to talk about ownership of the
>Moon/Mars/asteroids. When the technology has matured
>to the point where we can think of exploiting these
>resources, then I believe we can have a good
>discussion.
>
Read the "Moon Miners' Manifesto", the "Artemis Databook", the
"P.E.R.M.A.N.E.N.T" site, the various books like the "Lunar Base
Handbook" - we're not being held up by technology, although there's a
need for some low-gravity location/material-specific processing R&D, and
lots of "prospecting" will of course be needed. I have little doubt that
we will be starting to exploit off-Earth resources well before 2020; IF
we can gather the investment capital needed to make it happen. CATS cuts
down some of the costs (but far from all of them - most satellites
launched now cost considerably more than the launch fee) and so reduces
the capital investment needed - so it helps. But we still need some big
billion-dollar-level investments with or without CATS.

> Though if history is a judge, it will
>probably end up being a first come first claim on the
>asteroids.
>
That's basically what the Space Settlement Initiative proposal does -
establish what "first come" means so you can make the first claim.

Arthur