Smells Like Teen Spirit

Arthur P. Smith wrote,

"
Communications satellites
have also been getting larger at an accelerating pace. Within the next 15
years we'll be regularly putting things in space that can not be launched
in one piece, but (like ISS) will need in-orbit assembly
"

It might be a whole lot cheaper and less risky just to build bigger
rockets, and integrate the larger commsats on the ground.

Ron
******

"Arthur P. Smith"
05/18/03 10:22 PM
Please respond to spacesettlers

To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
cc:
Subject: Re: [spacesettlers] Re: "Smells Like Teen Spirit"

On Sat, 17 May 2003, victoriatangoman wrote:

> I do have serious doubt about your 2020 prediction. Investment
> dollars flow to projects that have the greatest return. There are
> more projects available than capital to fund them, so there is a
> rationing of investment. I see no investment proposals, nor
> technologies, on the horizon, nor a gleam in the eye of a budding
> engineer, nor speculative business plans that past first muster,
> which lead me to share your conclusion that 2020 is a viable date.

(1) The companies are out there. TransOrbital is flying
the first commercial mission to the Moon later
this year. If they're successful with that (and they sound very
positive about it right now, in contrast to some earlier reports I'd
heard from the same people) they plan follow-on missions of increasing
scope - the next one (scheduled for 2005) would be a lander with sample
analysis, etc. LunaCorp seems well on their way to something similar next
year with a bit more on the government sponsorship side, though they're
not
as far ahead on permits etc. as far as I can tell. This is one
route, and far more than a "gleam in the eye" at this point. The business
plans are evolving; if these companies crash and burn like Beal and Rotary
Rocket, I fully expect followers who will have learned from their mistakes
and try again, perhaps with more modest plans. No, they're not at the
billion dollar level yet, but they are working with 10's of millions
right now, and to get there in 17 years takes only a modest 30%/year :-)

(2) One major market: large-scale space structures. For example, the
recent space.com article on future space telescopes. Communications
satellites
have also been getting larger at an accelerating pace. Within the next 15
years we'll be regularly putting things in space that can not be launched
in one piece, but (like ISS) will need in-orbit assembly - that also
provides
opportunities for in-orbit re-fueling, and supply of bulk or lightly
processed materials that could be manufactured and brought to LEO (or
wherever the assembly point is) from the Moon more cheaply than from
Earth.

(3) The greatest return on investments comes from creating and improving
economic "loops", where part of the output of the economic process
provides most of the input required for the next iteration;
the development of agriculture, utilization of metals, industrialization,
electricity, computers and the internet all provided new opportunities for
a variety of economic feedback loops. Development of space resources
provides us a similar loop, completely new, and in the long run the
returns
will be astronomical! Now we just need to convince those investors...

Arthur