New Terraforming Website

Some of the pro Mars people are indeed sensitive to the idea that Mars may not be able to be terraformed. The figures you give on air pressure on Mars are incorrect. I believe it varies approximately between 7.5 and 11 millibars in air pressure according to the season but this is calculated on ground level. This same question actually came up in sci.astro once years ago in an amusing way. I posed the same question as to what the air pressure would be at the bottom of the deepest place on Mars, and whether liquid water would be more likely to form there. I also asked whether liquid water could run out of the side of craters and being in the higher pressure not sublimate but sink back into the ground and back into the water table.

One of the well known scientists at the time there decided to say that my ideas were utter nonsense. There was one though who cautioned him about it, because at the time NASA was expected to make a big announcement in the next week.

The funny thing was they announced that not only was my theory correct (they didn't quote me obviously) but they believed that was what was happening in some areas. They also mentioned that the air pressure the bottom of Valles Marineris is about double that on the surface. That only increases the range of liquid water to a few extra degrees of temperature though.

One example of a place where liquid water may be flowing now on Mars is Russell Crater. There is also a part of the south pole where the temperature gets very close to zero, perhaps enough for brines to liquefy for long periods. That's because the sun doesn't set in summer for several Martian months.

The point you make about hydrogen is technically correct but the time scales for this to occur are believed to be millions even billions of years. That's why it is believed to be irrelevant in terraforming. There is little hydrogen in the atmosphere there currently so the idea is moot. For this to be a problem the air would be much thicker and contain more water for this process to start up again, and it would take millions of years to occur. For you to assert otherwise you need to publish the equations that demonstrate this.

The frozen air on Mars is likely to have sublimated several times in its history in response to the Argyre and Hellas impacts. The Argyre impact created Elysium Mons which would have supplied heat to mars for millions of years. Hellas created Alba Patera which would also have supplied heat for a long time, far longer than we would be around there. A similar amount of heat could be generated just by dropping a large meteor onto the Martian surface. Another way is for the axial tilt of Mars to change. There are many papers which have calculated that if the axial tilt went to 50 degrees (which it is supposed to do regularly) then all the air on the poles would melt, and most of the ice on the poles would move to the equator. This is because in summer the sun wouldn't set on a wide area around each pole in turn and so the planet gets extra heat.

I have done a lot of research into the South pole of Mars, into the phenomenon known as Martian spiders. You can read about them here:

http://www.martianspiders.com/

Recently I did a more comprehensive study on them which you can read here:

http://newfrontiersinscience.com/Members/v02n03/a/NFS0203a.shtml

There is a lot of information there on temperatures, for example:

"The large eccentricity of Mars' orbit also affects the seasons. The current configuration means aphelion occurs during northern-hemisphere summer; as a result, northern summer is up to 30 degrees colder than southern summer, and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle is 110 K in southern midlatitudes but only 55 K in the north."

http://www.mit.edu/people/goodmanj/terraforming/node6.html

[89] See Figure 2:

http://www-mars.lmd.jussieu.fr/granada2003/abstract/titus.pdf

[90] This shows the shrinking of the polar cap at the same time as the spiders are increasing, Figure 2:

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2002/pdf/2071.pdf

[91] "The seasons in Mars's southern hemisphere include short, very hot summers, and longer, cold winters. The Martian orbit is less circular and more elliptical than Earth's, which means for part of the year the planet is a lot closer to the sun. The southern hemisphere, tilted towards the sun when Mars is closest, has a hotter summer than the other hemisphere. The northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun when Mars is farther away, and so its summers are not as hot."

http://van.hep.uiuc.edu/van/qa/section/Stuff_about_Space/The_Earth_and_the_Moon/20020322171839.htm

[92] Here the spider areas (mainly on the right side of the inner circle) show a temperature of yellow to orange at Ls 253 degrees, which is -30 to -15 degrees Celsius.

http://www.mars-ice.org/vamp0_Nov27-29(Ls%3)Day_Temp(!Uo!NC).gif

[93] Here at Ls 251 degrees the temperatures show -40 degrees Celsius. Bolometric readings according to Titus can underestimate the temperature by around 20 degrees Celsius if the ground is frost free. http://www.mars-ice.org/spole_2pm_1.gif

[94] Here the temperatures in green get to near zero from 250 to 300 degrees Ls, which is when the spiders are growing. http://www.mars-ice.org/slat_trends.gif

[95] Here the shrinking of the polar cap is shown to favour the spider areas, which are on the right: http://www.mars-ice.org/spole97.html

[96] Here Figure 4 shows the temperatures at Ls 309 degrees. The spider areas are very patchy with some areas still very cold but other areas much warmer. The yellow and orange spots in the bottom right part of the inner circle correspond roughly to spider clusters: http://www.mars-ice.org/iceland.html

[97] "Dark spots appeared as the surface began defrosting in August. Winds occasionally moved the darker material across the surface, leading to dark streaks, NASA said. But all the frost and streaks disappeared by February." http://www.cnn.com/2000/TECH/space/02/23/mars.thaw/

In some areas Mars is already close to or above zero. The problem is the temperatures swing wildly because of the thin atmosphere. If you could melt the CO2 there you would have an atmosphere according to some papers (I can post them if you want) of 1/4 or more of the atmosphere of Earth. From there you could have a form of life tailored to can make some of it oxygen. No hydrogen so far to be lost. As this occurred liquid water would occur more often because the air pressure would be above the triple point and ice would melt rather than sublimate. Currently there is only a temperature range of a few degrees, from 0C to 3C where water can remain liquid at 11 millibars. With 1/4 atmosphere this rises (from memory) to 0C to around 11C. This may barely be enough for limited rainfall.

Even though the temperature may be higher than boiling at that air pressure because of the lack of heat evaporation would be slow, and often the water would form a layer of ice or mud. If the water is salty it can stay liquid as low as -50C. In one example a paper referred to a lake in the Russell Crater area (I can post the reference I am going from memory) and under current air pressure he estimated it would take thousands of years for a lake 50 feet deep to disappear as it would freeze in winter, etc.

The words you are using like temporary and quickly are true but there refer to timescales longer than mankind has existed.

From: Michael
To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 01, 2003 4:45 PM
Subject: [spacesettlers] Re: New Terraforming Website

>TangoMan wrote:
>You may want to post this site into a Mars fanatics group and see what kind of
>response you get.

I did and they were very unhappy. Furious and abusive is more accurate.
I've received dozens of emails, pages long, "proving" I'm wrong. I
countered all their arguments with realistic, scientific responses. They
responded in turn, by re-defining words, re-writing chemistry, saying "Kim
Stanley Robinson said so", or by trying to sell their books. The pro-Mars
movement is very popular and their resistance to new ideas is very strong.
I can't understand how people who call themselves scientists can be so
close-minded. Unfortunately, the release of 3D topographical maps of Mars
and the ease of high-definition rendering has made the pro-Mars movement
even stronger. Terraforming, and other forms of space colonisation, needs
to move from science-fiction to science theory, before it can become
science-fact. The pro-Mars movements stubborn indignation is seriously
compromising this progressive change.

>G. Orme wrote:
>Mars probably already has enough CO2 frozen to make the atmosphere 1/4 of our
>own air pressure. Also if you go to the bottom of Valles Marineris or Hellas
>Basin the air pressure approximately doubles. Over time this would escape but
>this would be many millions of years.

The current air pressure at the bottom of the deepest canyon on Mars is
8/1000 of an Earth atmopshere. The issue is not Carbon dioxide but
Hydrogen. Even with a 1 Earth atmosphere, if a planet can't hold Hydrogen
then it can't hold water. Liquid surface water is an essential requirement
of a terraformed planet. Mars just can't hold Hydrogen, even heavy Hydrogen
(Deutrium).

Also, melting the frozen Carbon dioxide at the Martian poles is only a
temporary solution. The thin Martian atmosphere will quickly loose heat to
space and freeze once more.

I will try to publish my email responses on my site aswell.

Michael
http://www.geocities.com/alt_cosmos/index.html