Overpopulation

Hi Robert,

>
> actually this has already been solved, with electromagnetic
> launchers. the problem with them is that they need to be near the
> equator to take advantage of the earth rotation, and the places
> there don't really want other countries building things like that
>in
> their back yard, and don't have the capacity to do it themselves.

Yes. A problem can be solved "in theory" but taking them to practice
is another matter. I have hear that not only electromagnetic
launchers but also cannons "Verne's style" could be used to send
mass loads to space. However, how much would it cost? Who is going
to finance it? And what are the risks if one load get out of control
and hits a big city, for example?

I am not saying it won't be done some day. It is just that I doubt
these advances will come that fast.

> it actually could be done considerably cheaper than that, if you
> could get ppl out of the mindset that it had to be done with
> chemical
> rockets.

I believe is not here as yet. Look at the shuttles for example. The
way for that kind of ships to work is by using scramjets. However,
scramjets are just in the phase of basic research now. More is need
to be done to make things practical. A lot more.

> not if business has any thing to say about it. business would
> develope its own infrastructure, and the necessity to go would
>come
> from profits. if you look at all the great migreations of the
>past,
> few were actually caused by over crowding. much of the push was
> caused by political problems, others were for religious reasons,

Well, business is doing its job in colonizing the space. The effort
is already been done with the works of Rutan and others. But the
advance will be in slow motion for a while.

>but
> by far the biggest was for ppl to find a better life somewhere
>else.
> indications are much of it started in the far east, and ppl began
>to
> move westward (yes i know the evidence indicates an earlier one
>that
> went east out of africa first) and has had a steady push to the
>west
> ever since. the decendance of those that did not travel seem to
> perfer to stay where they are for the most part, until population
> presure pushes them on wards. but those at the forefront seem to
>move
> sooner and more often. that is why washington is behind the times
>on
> the push to leave the planet. eventually they will find they are
> holding the door wondering where everyone went.

Immigrations starts once the technology is in place.

The Vikings reached the Americas because they had the more advanced
ships of their times, with iron reinforcements. The Spaniards
conquered the Americas because they have even better ships, besides
astrolabs, magnetic compasses and the knowledge of the Portuguese
school of sailing founded by Henry the Navigator. Those things were
not casual. Once you got the tech you do it.

I am just saying we don't have the tech ... as yet. In other words,
we can't conquest the space with the equivalent of river canoes. We
need caravels to do that.

>
> in a time of cheap (or compariatively cheap oil) there was no need
> for it. since youve likely not heard, there is a much larger push
>now
> for things like these than there was a mere year ago. 40 years
>might
> have been true a year ago, but its a bit unrealistic now, and
>every
> dime the price of gas increase, cuts that time even farther.
>

Well, I know development is in place, but to mount the large
infrastructure of hydrogen the world needs, it will take decades.
Actually, 40 years is my conservative guess. A lot has to be done in
the fields of hydrogen production and storage as yet, and the prices
have to get down to the point that fuel is cheaper than oil.
It will come soon, but not immediately.

>
> none of these are any where close to simple. infact flying cars
> might be as complicated as building a space station. fusion power
> (safely) is even more complicated. maiden robots, i have not even
>a
> clue. holographic tv is something that requires things that are
> appearantly not related to it to be done, and likely ppl will be
> surprised when the hurdle is surpassed. super sonic jets are well
> understood, but the politics are another matter.

Well, those are examples of projects that were predicted for our
times fifty years ago, and that have not come as yet. My point is
technological advances are not as fast as we usually think.

> actually that stair way could be made, IF you made it from space
>down
> and IF you use materials that are not QUITE ready yet. it could be
>> done, but not likely. the point is, we already know what we need
>to,
> in order to get it built, but politics as usual will not allow it
>to
> be done.

For the Babilonians to reach heavens they would have need to build a
100 kilometers mud brick tower. I doubt this could be done even
today with all our people and resources, just by piling bricks from
the ground up.

Yes, the idea of the space elevator could perhaps one day become a
reality, but I don't think Babilonias have that in mind. lol :)

Regards,

Omar Vega