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--- In spacesettlers, "victoriatangoman" wrote:

> I think we agree that 10 million population Habitats aren't on the
> horizon until we can find a use for 10,000,000 people in orbit, or
> more precisely in one Habitat.

And that won't be until after we find a use for 10,000.

> What's your take on the process though. Posit any size Habitat -
> 1,000 to 10,000,000. Won't the limiting factor be the rate of build
> up?
>
> Does it make more sense to assume a steady rate of growth - i.e.
> fixed number of shuttle launches per month or year or a percentage
> of the Habitat population, because as the popualtion grows they can
> build up infrasturture more quickly.
>
> Or should it be done in surges. Build a Habitat, outfit it with the
> amenities and then ship up in a surge the population. Then stop
> immigration until you build more space.
>
> The problem as I see it is one of scaling. If you have a 10,000
> person Habitat with only 500 people there to start things off, it's
> going to take a certain percentage to build the new houses,
> furniture, grow food, etc, all of which will limit the time it
> takes to get full up.
> So in a sense, the Habitat will be less than full for quite a
> period.

For one of my endless started-but-never-finished stories, I assumed
that two thousand people build the first Island One, who promptly
move in. Another two thousand move in to finish the habitat, run the
cafes and such, plus another thousand to beff up the construction
force. Then another thousand a year move in for the next five years.

> I should add that I'm not a big advocate of the doubling factor. 1
> Habitat doubles to 2 in 4 years. Those 2 double to 4 in the next 4
> years. Those 4 double to 8. The 8 double to 16, etc because it
> assumes that increased capacity is all that is required to develop
> population.

I like the doubling factor to show what is *possible,* but agree that
it may not bee that accurate at showing what *will* happen. So when
I point out that in eighty years there can be enough habitats to
support Earth's entire population, I don't necessarily think that
that many will be built so soon, any more than I think that the
entire Earthly population will relocate.

That said, I do think that the first few habitats will double as
quickly as possible. Until there are, say, a hundred thousand or so
folks in orbit. It will slow down after that, for the reasons you
give.

> I think capacity is a necessary condition but by no means a
> sufficient condition. What will those people do in orbit? The rate
> of growth of that economy, and not the building capacity, will be
> the limiting factor.
>
> TangoMan

Xenophile (2; 4; 8; 16; 32; 64; 128; 256; 512; 1,024; 2,048...)