Asteroid retrieval by rotary rocket, by Jerome Pearson

From: Lucio de Souza Coelho
To: spacesettlers@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, February 09, 2006 12:14:28 PM
Subject: Re: [spacesettlers] Re: Asteroid retrieval by rotary rocket, by Jerome Pearson

>The "Moore Law" argument that I saw here is inapplicable: even if we build a computer a billion times more powerful than the human brain, that computer will be just a over-sized number cruncher with no consciousness at all.

I agree that processing power by itself doesn't create intelligence.

In fairness, "ongoing developments in AI." wasn't referring to Star Trek's Mr. Data.

It was meant in a different context. Developments are proceeding in many areas of AI research concurrently which are leading to capabilities that will favor mechanical asteroidal mineral / metal extraction vs. manpower based mining.

Take auto-navigation, for example. What are some recent news items? A Japanese probe Huyabusa does auto touch-and-go landing on Itokawa, US DARPA autonomous vehicle challenge, US Air Force Global Hawk...Obviously future Mars rovers will have significantly more capabilities than the current pair.

Looking at MIT and other universities' research projects: robotics in construction, manufacturing and warehousing.

Yes, computing power increases enhance capabilities.

Combining these with material science advances, nano and other, and where do these trends lead?

For space, it leads to probes with less handholding from ground control, better instrumentation, more resiliency in components, and larger repertoire of decision making capabilities.

This progression would also lead to asteroid prospecting and mining by machines. Very few humans would be required to work in space initially. (Depending on type of advances, maybe few humans will ever be needed for raw material extraction.)

Why not a heavy human presence for basic material extraction in space?
The economics will favor machines. (Risk. Long duration space health & environmental issues. Lauch costs. Mission flexibility for supply and resupply windows - critical for crewed missions, maybe not as critical for unmanned equipment.)

Rather than full intelligence, we are looking forward to functional capability. Units that exhibit enough autonomy to do useful work without excessive handholding and will ask for directions when needed. (Astonauts will also communicate with ground control when faced with difficult decisions so neither option offers 100% productivity. )