why outer space?

David Grunwald wrote:

> > Al Globus wrote:
> >
> > Best estimates are that the world's population will
> > stabilize at about 10
> > billion -- only 60-70% more than we have now.
>
> Who is estimating that the world's population will
> stabalize at 10 billion?

U.N, various international agencies, almost everyone who seriously studies
the issue.

> You say that population growth is falling
> in most parts of the globe: is this true of India,
> Brazil, Central America, Africa, and most of Asia?

Yes. Population size are rising, but growth *rates* are falling.

>
> Another thing to keep in mind is the consumption
> factor.

That's one reason keeping the Earth healthy will be hard.

>
> Also, you mentioned AIDS as a population check and,
> just to reiterate what I said before, I hate to see
> any increase in mortality be considered a solution to
> the overpopulation problem.

I don't consider it a "solution". I don't like it at all. I'm not
*proposing* it. Unfortunately, it is a fact. About 25% of the adult
population in southern Africa is HIV positive. They will probably all be
dead in 5-10 years. A large part of the rest of the population will be
orphans. My father adopted some of these and is raising them in California.
AIDS in southern Africa is huge disaster and the local govenments are not
doing much about it.

>
> When it comes to your suggestions regarding the space
> program; what do you think about privatizing NASA as a
> means for reaching their cost cutting goals?

Parts of what used to be NASA are now private and profitable: communication
satellites, much remote sensing, and expendable launchers. When anything we
do can be profitable with mostly non-government customers, it should be
privatized. This has happened in the past with hundred, if not thousands, of
products. NASA can and should do the important work which is not
profitable. Hopefully, we strike the right balance most of the time.

Al Globus
aglobus@..., (650) 604-4404
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/~globus/home.html

The dinosaurs weren't spacefaring. We are. I don't think that's an accident.
Maybe we are life's taxi to the stars.

I think we should:

1. Devote half of NASA's budget ($7 billion) to reaching NASA's 2020 goal of
reducing launch costs to Low-Earth-Orbit to $220/kg with a 0.01% failure
rate.
This should enable space tourism. The resulting orbital hotels will need to
develop efficient orbital life support and other necessary technologies.

2. Build orbital space colonies. The materials in the largest asteroid are
sufficient for orbital colonies with a combined surface area about 500 times
greater than Earth's. Eros alone could make over ten thousand space colonies,

each with about about 10 square kilometers of 1g living area.

3. After a few generations of orbital living, people won't need their colony
to be near Sol. Then small groups of colonies with populations in the
tens-of-thousands can set out on multi-decade journeys to nearby stars.

Except the launch goals, none of this is even a little bit official.