Back to manufacturing in space.

Earlier the list had a thread about manufacturing on the settlements. Without radical new
technology, transporting consumer goods from Earth to a space station will always cost
many, many times more than it does to ship items around the world today. Importing
items from Earth will be prohibitively expensive for lower/middle income folks (if we are
even allowed in space on a permanent basis) The settlement will either need to be able to
manufacture much of its own consumer goods, or have an export so valuable that they can
afford Earth goods (perhaps Dunespice?)

If we try to manufacture on the settlement, we run into some problems. There are
thousands of different types of consumer goods that people will need. With populations
and space limited, it will not be possible to have assembly lines available for all the
different things we may need to produce. Also, even with versatile factories that can
produce a wide variety of objects, costs will go way up since items will only be produced in
small numbers.

Lets take as an example televisions. A family in the settlement needs a new TV because
their old one has gone out. A certain TV that they really like from company X costs $1000
on Earth. By the time you rocket it up to the settlement, it costs say $10,000. (This
assumes much cheaper transport than we have now) There is a multi-factory on the
settlement that can produce a TV for them. Because they don't have warehouse space, it
must be produced on demand. Because of patent laws, the multi-factory cannot build a
brand X TV, which is what the family wants. The sales rep at the multi factory says this is
the only TV we can build. I can sell it to you for $7500, or you can order one from Earth if
you don't like it. Because this multi-factory has a monopoly on virtually all consumer
goods, they are able to produce sub-standard stuff and charge rediculous prices.

Even settlements close to Earth will be faced with very high prices for a long time to come,
and I don't feel that the settlements will truly be able to acheive the critical mass necessary
for effective consumerism until their population exceeds 100,000. Many settlements
grouped together would be able to combine their markets to create sufficient demand.
Transport between nearby settlements would be much cheaper than transport to and from
Earth.

Until the settlements reach some critical mass of population, or the cost of leaving Earth's
gravity well plummets, life on the settlements will remain extremely expensive. This may
not be a problem for someone wishing to live a monkish life with little material
possessions, but many will find it unatractive.

I certainly hope I'm being overly pessimistic. If anyone has any good info or ideas to refute
this, let me know.

doug