Direct Shuttle Derivative

The home page isn't working for some reason at the moment, but the PDF
file is.
http://www.directlauncher.com/
http://simcosmos.planetaclix.pt/temp/Direct/DIRECT_Launcher_Release_v1.0.4.pdf

Idea:
Use as much STS hardware as possible to minimise development/retooling
costs and design just one vehicle instead of two

Good:
Save $20B non reccuring R&D costs
Save ~$1B per year operating costs
Lower development risks
Shorter development time
Greater margin of safety (=mass) for manned flights.
Costs $20M less than Aries V

Bad:
A safety rate of 1 in 1355 is not as good as the NASA claims for the
Aries I, or the figure industry experts talk about (1 in 1450)
Costs $20M more per flight than Aries I
Max cargo is only 98MT to LEO.

The basic idea (use one design and get economy savings) seems valid,
and they're realistically not going to use it more than a few hundred
flights, so difference in safety might not be particularly significant
in practice. On the other hand I've no idea how acccurate their claims
are, and recently got burned by believing a previously reputable
source at their word.

So, comments anyone?

John

PS: Sorry if you get this message twice, but the last one has been
AWOL for 14 hours.